Vegas Golden Knights at Dallas Stars, NHL forecast
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Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors DAL; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Golden Knights- Brayden McNabbGoals1
- Mitch MarnerAssists1
- Brayden McNabbPoints1
Stars- Justin HryckowianGoals1
- Colin BlackwellAssists1
- Wyatt JohnstonPoints1
Scoring summary
- P316:22Reilly Smith Goal (12) Snap Shot, assists: Mitch Marner (51), Pavel Dorofeyev (24)3–2
- P29:10Ivan Barbashev Goal (20) Snap Shot, assists: Brett Howden (8), Colton Sissons (5)2–2
- P116:48Justin Hryckowian Goal (11) Wrist Shot, assists: Colin Blackwell (9), Sam Steel (21)1–2
- P110:55Wyatt Johnston Goal (38) Snap Shot, assists: Matt Duchene (21), Miro Heiskanen (50)1–1
- P14:01Brayden McNabb Goal (4) Snap Shot, assists: Keegan Kolesar (11), Shea Theodore (25)1–0
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- P14:01Brayden McNabb Goal (4) Snap Shot, assists: Keegan Kolesar (11), Shea Theodore (25)VGK 1 – 0 DAL · VGK 45% → 60% +15VGK 45% → 60%+15 pts
- P110:55Wyatt Johnston Goal (38) Snap Shot, assists: Matt Duchene (21), Miro Heiskanen (50)VGK 1 – 1 DAL · DAL 39% → 55% +16DAL 39% → 55%+16 pts
- P116:48Justin Hryckowian Goal (11) Wrist Shot, assists: Colin Blackwell (9), Sam Steel (21)VGK 1 – 2 DAL · DAL 54% → 71% +16DAL 54% → 71%+16 pts
- P29:10Ivan Barbashev Goal (20) Snap Shot, assists: Brett Howden (8), Colton Sissons (5)VGK 2 – 2 DAL · VGK 27% → 46% +19VGK 27% → 46%+19 pts
- P316:22Reilly Smith Goal (12) Snap Shot, assists: Mitch Marner (51), Pavel Dorofeyev (24)VGK 3 – 2 DAL · VGK 49% → 93% +44VGK 49% → 93%+44 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Stars 55%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NHL favorites the forecast gave 55–60% have won 56.4% of 1,035 graded games.
- Market
- DAL 55%
- ML VGK +114 / DAL -135
- Pre-line forecast
- DAL 60%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- DAL 64%
- Ratings vs. market
- +8.9 pts
- DAL: Elo 64.1%, market 55.1%
- Fair odds
- DAL -123
- VGK +123 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- VGK 2.6 – 2.9 DAL
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 5.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | VGK | DAL | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1497 | 1565 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +35 | Worth 35 Elo in the NHL |
| Rest | −30 | −30 | DAL and VGK on the second night of a back-to-back |
| Starting goalies | +4 | +2 | VGK: Adin Hill: team allows 0.11 fewer goals than with its usual starter (≈45 weighted starts) · DAL: Casey DeSmith: team allows 0.05 fewer goals than with its usual starter (≈39 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | DAL +101 Elo | DAL 64.1% | |
| Market-implied ratings | DAL 58.8% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | DAL 59.9% | 20% Elo, 80% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | DAL 55.1% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Overtime and shootout losses count as losses in these records. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest. Shot share is a team's share of the shots on goal in its games. PDO adds shooting and save percentages: far from 100 tends to even out.
| VGK | Stat | DAL |
|---|---|---|
| 14th of 323.2 | Goals scored | 3.47th of 32 |
| 19th of 323.1 | Goals allowed | 2.72nd of 32 |
| 15th of 320.0 | Margin | +0.73rd of 32 |
| 4th of 3253.9% | Shot share | 49.4%19th of 32 |
| 30th of 3288.1% | Save percentage | 90.4%7th of 32 |
| 27th of 323–7 | Last 10 | 7–32nd of 32 |
| 22nd of 3215–20 | Road vs home | 22–124th of 32 |
| 27th of 321497 | Opponent Elo | 149530th of 32 |
| 17th of 321497 | Elo rating | 15654th of 32 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  VGK |  DAL |
|---|---|---|
| Puck line | 27–43 | 29–40 |
| Last 10 | 5–5 | 5–5 |
| Favorite | 15–41 | 15–38 |
| Underdog | 12–2 | 14–2 |
| Overs–unders | 36–34 | 34–35 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 2–8 | 6–4 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
VGK 7–8 DAL in their last 15 meetings; the forecast called 6 of 15.
- Mar 10VGK 1 @ DAL 2Picked DAL 57%Hit
- Jan 29DAL 5 @ VGK 4Picked VGK 52%Miss
- Jan 28DAL 4 @ VGK 3Picked VGK 53%Miss
- Jan 24VGK 3 @ DAL 4Picked DAL 58%Hit
- Dec 6DAL 2 @ VGK 3Picked DAL 58%Miss
- May 5VGK 1 @ DAL 2PlayoffsPicked DAL 56%Hit
- May 3DAL 0 @ VGK 2PlayoffsPicked VGK 53%Hit
- May 1VGK 2 @ DAL 3PlayoffsPicked DAL 57%Hit