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Edmonton Oilers at Dallas Stars, NHL forecast

FinalESPN+, Hulu

Away

Oilers

32-26-8

2–7

at

Home

Stars

41-14-10

EDM 46%DAL 54%

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American Airlines Center · ESPN+, Hulu

Win probability

Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors DAL; hover for each play.

DAL favored EDM favored9 scoring plays
P1P2P3DAL50%EDM

Game center

From the ESPN box score.

Top performers

Scoring summary

  • P318:57Matt Duchene Goal (13) Backhand, assists: Colin Blackwell (8), Esa Lindell (21)2–7
  • P31:32Jamie Benn Goal (14) Snap Shot, assists: Jason Robertson (42), Wyatt Johnston (36)2–6
  • P211:59Jason Dickinson Goal (7) Tip-In, assists: Mattias Ekholm (29), Jack Roslovic (11)2–5
  • P27:53Evan Bouchard Goal (19) Snap Shot, assists: Kasperi Kapanen (8), Leon Draisaitl (61)1–5
  • P26:15Jason Robertson Goal (36) Snap Shot, assists: Wyatt Johnston (35), Miro Heiskanen (47)0–5
  • P25:43Wyatt Johnston Goal (35) Snap Shot, assists: Jason Robertson (41), Miro Heiskanen (46)0–4
  • P115:11Jason Robertson Goal (35) Snap Shot, assists: none0–3
  • P113:09Sam Steel Goal (11) Tip-In, assists: Matt Duchene (19), Mavrik Bourque (17)0–2
  • P11:23Jamie Benn Goal (13) Backhand, assists: Miro Heiskanen (45), Sam Steel (20)0–1

Turning points

The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.

  1. P11:23Jamie Benn Goal (13) Backhand, assists: Miro Heiskanen (45), Sam Steel (20)EDM 0 – 1 DAL · DAL 54% → 68% +14
  2. P113:09Sam Steel Goal (11) Tip-In, assists: Matt Duchene (19), Mavrik Bourque (17)EDM 0 – 2 DAL · DAL 69% → 82% +13
  3. P115:11Jason Robertson Goal (35) Snap Shot, assists: noneEDM 0 – 3 DAL · DAL 83% → 91% +9
  4. P25:43Wyatt Johnston Goal (35) Snap Shot, assists: Jason Robertson (41), Miro Heiskanen (46)EDM 0 – 4 DAL · DAL 94% → 98% +4
  5. P211:59Jason Dickinson Goal (7) Tip-In, assists: Mattias Ekholm (29), Jack Roslovic (11)EDM 2 – 5 DAL · EDM 1% → 5% +3

The pick

Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.

Stars 54%

Toss-upHit
EDM 46%DAL 54%

Forecast Elo ratings alone

How often that comes true: NHL favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 51.2% of 926 graded games.

Market
DAL 54%
ML EDM +110 / DAL -130
Pre-line forecast
DAL 55%
Elo + market-implied
Elo ratings
DAL 61%
Ratings vs. market
+6.8 pts
DAL: Elo 61.0%, market 54.3%
Fair odds
DAL -119
EDM +119 · the forecast as odds, no margin
Pregame projection
EDM 3.1 – 3.4 DAL
Margin from the forecast, posted total 6.5

How the number is built

Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.

FactorEDMDALWhy
Team rating15301566Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average
Home field—+35Worth 35 Elo in the NHL
Starting goalies−80EDM: Tristan Jarry: team allows 0.20 more goals than with its usual starter (≈44 weighted starts) · DAL: Jake Oettinger: team allows 0.01 more goals than with its usual starter (≈49 weighted starts)
Elo ratingsDAL +78 EloDAL 61.0%
Market-implied ratingsDAL 53.0%Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context
Pre-line forecastDAL 54.6%20% Elo, 80% market-implied (log-odds blend)
ForecastDAL 54.3%Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate

Tale of the tape

This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Overtime and shootout losses count as losses in these records. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest. Shot share is a team's share of the shots on goal in its games. PDO adds shooting and save percentages: far from 100 tends to even out.

Try another venue →
Edmonton Oilers and Dallas Stars compared, with each team's league rank
EDMStatDAL
4th of 323.6Goals scored3.57th of 32
27th of 323.4Goals allowed2.72nd of 32
12th of 32+0.2Margin+0.83rd of 32
6th of 3252.2%Shot share49.5%18th of 32
30th of 3288.1%Save percentage90.4%7th of 32
17th of 324–6Last 109–11st of 32
18th of 3216–18Road vs home20–115th of 32
29th of 321495Opponent Elo149332nd of 32
7th of 321530Elo rating15663rd of 32

Rating history

Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.

OilersStars
1450150015501600league averageNovFebMayAugNov

Recent form

Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.

Against the line

How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.

This seasonEDMDAL
Puck line25–4027–37
Last 103–75–5
Favorite18–3614–35
Underdog7–413–2
Overs–unders41–2432–32
Overs–unders, last 109–16–4

Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.

Head to head

EDM 10–9 DAL in their last 19 meetings; the forecast called 10 of 19.