Dallas Stars at Minnesota Wild, NHL forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors MIN; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Stars- Jason RobertsonGoals1
- Miro HeiskanenAssists1
- Jason RobertsonPoints1
Wild- Bobby BrinkGoals1
- Quinn HughesAssists2
- Bobby BrinkPoints2
Scoring summary
- OT3:06Vladimir Tarasenko Goal (20) Snap Shot, assists: Bobby Brink (14), Quinn Hughes (63)1–2
- P210:45Bobby Brink Goal (15) Backhand, assists: Quinn Hughes (62), Jared Spurgeon (13)1–1
- P114:21Jason Robertson Goal (38) Wrist Shot, assists: Miro Heiskanen (49), Matt Duchene (20)1–0
Turning points
The 3 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- P114:21Jason Robertson Goal (38) Wrist Shot, assists: Miro Heiskanen (49), Matt Duchene (20)DAL 1 – 0 MIN · DAL 54% → 70% +16DAL 54% → 70%+16 pts
- P210:45Bobby Brink Goal (15) Backhand, assists: Quinn Hughes (62), Jared Spurgeon (13)DAL 1 – 1 MIN · MIN 27% → 46% +19MIN 27% → 46%+19 pts
- OT3:06Vladimir Tarasenko Goal (20) Snap Shot, assists: Bobby Brink (14), Quinn Hughes (63)DAL 1 – 2 MIN · MIN 49% → 98% +49MIN 49% → 98%+49 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Stars 55%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NHL favorites the forecast gave 55–60% have won 56.4% of 1,035 graded games.
- Market
- DAL 55%
- ML DAL -135 / MIN +114
- Pre-line forecast
- DAL 49%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- DAL 50%
- Ratings vs. market
- −5.0 pts
- DAL: Elo 50.2%, market 55.1%
- Fair odds
- DAL -123
- MIN +123 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- DAL 2.9 – 2.6 MIN
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 5.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | DAL | MIN | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1568 | 1528 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +35 | Worth 35 Elo in the NHL |
| Starting goalies | +2 | +5 | DAL: Jake Oettinger: team allows 0.05 fewer goals than with its usual starter (≈49 weighted starts) · MIN: Filip Gustavsson: team allows 0.13 fewer goals than with its usual starter (≈47 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | DAL +1 Elo | DAL 50.2% | |
| Market-implied ratings | MIN 51.7% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | MIN 51.3% | 20% Elo, 80% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | DAL 55.1% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Overtime and shootout losses count as losses in these records. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest. Shot share is a team's share of the shots on goal in its games. PDO adds shooting and save percentages: far from 100 tends to even out.
| DAL | Stat | MIN |
|---|---|---|
| 5th of 323.5 | Goals scored | 3.312th of 32 |
| 2nd of 322.7 | Goals allowed | 2.96th of 32 |
| 3rd of 32+0.8 | Margin | +0.46th of 32 |
| 19th of 3249.4% | Shot share | 49.5%18th of 32 |
| 7th of 3290.4% | Save percentage | 91.1%2nd of 32 |
| 2nd of 328–2 | Last 10 | 4–621st of 32 |
| 3rd of 3221–13 | Road vs home | 19–1821st of 32 |
| 30th of 321495 | Opponent Elo | 149528th of 32 |
| 3rd of 321568 | Elo rating | 15286th of 32 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  DAL |  MIN |
|---|---|---|
| Puck line | 29–39 | 35–35 |
| Last 10 | 5–5 | 4–6 |
| Favorite | 15–37 | 12–30 |
| Underdog | 14–2 | 23–5 |
| Overs–unders | 34–34 | 38–32 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 6–4 | 1–9 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
DAL 6–3 MIN in their last 9 meetings; the forecast called 4 of 9.