Minnesota Wild at Chicago Blackhawks, NHL forecast
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Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors CHI; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Wild- Marcus JohanssonGoals1
- Brock FaberAssists3
- Marcus JohanssonPoints3
Blackhawks- Frank NazarGoals1
- Connor BedardAssists2
- Louis CrevierPoints2
Scoring summary
- OT3:09Mats Zuccarello Goal (13) Snap Shot, assists: Marcus Johansson (29), Brock Faber (32)4–3
- P318:20Frank Nazar Goal (11) Snap Shot, assists: Connor Bedard (37), Artyom Levshunov (22)3–3
- P214:35Ryan Greene Goal (9) Wrist Shot, assists: Connor Bedard (36), Louis Crevier (12)3–2
- P118:30Vladimir Tarasenko Goal (19) Wrist Shot, assists: Marcus Johansson (28), Brock Faber (31)3–1
- P110:47Louis Crevier Goal (5) Slap Shot, assists: Frank Nazar (23), Wyatt Kaiser (8)2–1
- P17:58Marcus Johansson Goal (14) Snap Shot, assists: Michael McCarron (9), Jonas Brodin (13)2–0
- P16:17Ryan Hartman Goal (16) Snap Shot, assists: Kirill Kaprizov (42), Brock Faber (30)1–0
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- P16:17Ryan Hartman Goal (16) Snap Shot, assists: Kirill Kaprizov (42), Brock Faber (30)MIN 1 – 0 CHI · MIN 61% → 75% +14MIN 61% → 75%+14 pts
- P118:30Vladimir Tarasenko Goal (19) Wrist Shot, assists: Marcus Johansson (28), Brock Faber (31)MIN 3 – 1 CHI · MIN 75% → 87% +12MIN 75% → 87%+12 pts
- P214:35Ryan Greene Goal (9) Wrist Shot, assists: Connor Bedard (36), Louis Crevier (12)MIN 3 – 2 CHI · CHI 9% → 23% +13CHI 9% → 23%+13 pts
- P318:20Frank Nazar Goal (11) Snap Shot, assists: Connor Bedard (37), Artyom Levshunov (22)MIN 3 – 3 CHI · CHI 1% → 48% +47CHI 1% → 48%+47 pts
- OT3:09Mats Zuccarello Goal (13) Snap Shot, assists: Marcus Johansson (29), Brock Faber (32)MIN 4 – 3 CHI · MIN 52% → 98% +46MIN 52% → 98%+46 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Wild 62%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NHL favorites the forecast gave 60–65% have won 62.4% of 599 graded games.
- Market
- MIN 62%
- ML MIN -180 / CHI +150
- Pre-line forecast
- MIN 58%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- MIN 61%
- Ratings vs. market
- −0.9 pts
- MIN: Elo 60.8%, market 61.6%
- Fair odds
- MIN -161
- CHI +161 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- MIN 3.1 – 2.4 CHI
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 5.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | MIN | CHI | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1530 | 1418 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +35 | Worth 35 Elo in the NHL |
| Starting goalies | +5 | +6 | MIN: Filip Gustavsson: team allows 0.12 fewer goals than with its usual starter (≈47 weighted starts) · CHI: Spencer Knight: team allows 0.15 fewer goals than with its usual starter (≈40 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | MIN +76 Elo | MIN 60.8% | |
| Market-implied ratings | MIN 57.9% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | MIN 58.5% | 20% Elo, 80% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | MIN 61.6% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Overtime and shootout losses count as losses in these records. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest. Shot share is a team's share of the shots on goal in its games. PDO adds shooting and save percentages: far from 100 tends to even out.
| MIN | Stat | CHI |
|---|---|---|
| 11th of 323.3 | Goals scored | 2.729th of 32 |
| 6th of 322.9 | Goals allowed | 3.223rd of 32 |
| 6th of 32+0.4 | Margin | −0.629th of 32 |
| 20th of 3249.3% | Shot share | 45.4%32nd of 32 |
| 2nd of 3291.1% | Save percentage | 89.9%16th of 32 |
| 20th of 324–6 | Last 10 | 3–727th of 32 |
| 4th of 3219–13 | Road vs home | 13–2029th of 32 |
| 24th of 321498 | Opponent Elo | 150115th of 32 |
| 6th of 321530 | Elo rating | 141831st of 32 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  MIN |  CHI |
|---|---|---|
| Puck line | 35–33 | 42–24 |
| Last 10 | 5–5 | 5–5 |
| Favorite | 12–28 | 0–3 |
| Underdog | 23–5 | 42–21 |
| Overs–unders | 37–31 | 27–39 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 2–8 | 2–8 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
MIN 8–1 CHI in their last 9 meetings; the forecast called 6 of 9.