New York Rangers at Minnesota Wild, NHL forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors MIN; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Rangers- Vladislav GavrikovGoals1
- Vladislav GavrikovAssists2
- Vladislav GavrikovPoints3
Wild- Danila YurovGoals1
- Vladimir TarasenkoAssists1
- Matt BoldyPoints1
Scoring summary
- P37:19Danila Yurov Goal (10) Wrist Shot, assists: Vladimir Tarasenko (20), Yakov Trenin (14)4–2
- P29:03Vincent Trocheck Goal (13) Deflected, assists: Vladislav Gavrikov (17), Adam Fox (29)4–1
- P28:41Jaroslav Chmelar Goal (2) Backhand, assists: Taylor Raddysh (9), Urho Vaakanainen (6)3–1
- P20:35Matt Boldy Goal (38) Wrist Shot, assists: Quinn Hughes (61), Filip Gustavsson (2)2–1
- P115:00Vladislav Gavrikov Goal (13) Backhand, assists: Tye Kartye (10), Adam Fox (28)2–0
- P12:41Noah Laba Goal (9) Wrist Shot, assists: Gabe Perreault (11), Vladislav Gavrikov (16)1–0
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- P12:41Noah Laba Goal (9) Wrist Shot, assists: Gabe Perreault (11), Vladislav Gavrikov (16)NYR 1 – 0 MIN · NYR 37% → 51% +15NYR 37% → 51%+15 pts
- P115:00Vladislav Gavrikov Goal (13) Backhand, assists: Tye Kartye (10), Adam Fox (28)NYR 2 – 0 MIN · NYR 55% → 71% +16NYR 55% → 71%+16 pts
- P20:35Matt Boldy Goal (38) Wrist Shot, assists: Quinn Hughes (61), Filip Gustavsson (2)NYR 2 – 1 MIN · MIN 27% → 43% +17MIN 27% → 43%+17 pts
- P28:41Jaroslav Chmelar Goal (2) Backhand, assists: Taylor Raddysh (9), Urho Vaakanainen (6)NYR 3 – 1 MIN · NYR 60% → 78% +18NYR 60% → 78%+18 pts
- P29:03Vincent Trocheck Goal (13) Deflected, assists: Vladislav Gavrikov (17), Adam Fox (29)NYR 4 – 1 MIN · NYR 78% → 90% +12NYR 78% → 90%+12 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Wild 64%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NHL favorites the forecast gave 60–65% have won 62.4% of 599 graded games.
- Market
- MIN 64%
- ML NYR +164 / MIN -198
- Pre-line forecast
- MIN 64%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- MIN 63%
- Ratings vs. market
- −0.7 pts
- MIN: Elo 63.0%, market 63.7%
- Fair odds
- MIN -175
- NYR +175 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- NYR 2.9 – 3.6 MIN
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 6.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | NYR | MIN | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1479 | 1540 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +35 | Worth 35 Elo in the NHL |
| Starting goalies | +9 | +6 | NYR: Igor Shesterkin: team allows 0.23 fewer goals than with its usual starter (≈48 weighted starts) · MIN: Filip Gustavsson: team allows 0.14 fewer goals than with its usual starter (≈47 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | MIN +92 Elo | MIN 63.0% | |
| Market-implied ratings | MIN 64.8% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | MIN 64.4% | 20% Elo, 80% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | MIN 63.7% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Overtime and shootout losses count as losses in these records. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest. Shot share is a team's share of the shots on goal in its games. PDO adds shooting and save percentages: far from 100 tends to even out.
| NYR | Stat | MIN |
|---|---|---|
| 24th of 322.8 | Goals scored | 3.49th of 32 |
| 17th of 323.1 | Goals allowed | 2.85th of 32 |
| 23rd of 32−0.3 | Margin | +0.55th of 32 |
| 28th of 3246.8% | Shot share | 48.7%22nd of 32 |
| 10th of 3290.2% | Save percentage | 91.3%2nd of 32 |
| 12th of 325–5 | Last 10 | 6–47th of 32 |
| 13th of 3217–17 | Road vs home | 19–1513th of 32 |
| 11th of 321501 | Opponent Elo | 149825th of 32 |
| 23rd of 321479 | Elo rating | 15406th of 32 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  NYR |  MIN |
|---|---|---|
| Puck line | 33–32 | 35–31 |
| Last 10 | 6–4 | 5–5 |
| Favorite | 7–20 | 12–26 |
| Underdog | 26–12 | 23–5 |
| Overs–unders | 31–34 | 37–29 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 6–4 | 4–6 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
NYR 3–2 MIN in their last 5 meetings; the forecast called 4 of 5.