Calgary Flames at New York Rangers, NHL forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors NYR; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Flames
Rangers- Alexis LafreniereGoals3
- Mika ZibanejadAssists2
- Alexis LafrenierePoints3
Scoring summary
- P317:42Alexis Lafrenière Goal (18) Slap Shot, assists: Gabe Perreault (9), Urho Vaakanainen (5)0–4
- P216:31Alexis Lafrenière Goal (17) Wrist Shot, assists: Gabe Perreault (8), Mika Zibanejad (34)0–3
- P210:28Conor Sheary Goal (2) Wrist Shot, assists: Tye Kartye (8), Will Borgen (6)0–2
- P117:27Alexis Lafrenière Goal (16) Tip-In, assists: Mika Zibanejad (33), Adam Fox (27)0–1
Turning points
The 4 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- P117:27Alexis Lafrenière Goal (16) Tip-In, assists: Mika Zibanejad (33), Adam Fox (27)CGY 0 – 1 NYR · NYR 53% → 69% +16NYR 53% → 69%+16 pts
- P210:28Conor Sheary Goal (2) Wrist Shot, assists: Tye Kartye (8), Will Borgen (6)CGY 0 – 2 NYR · NYR 72% → 86% +15NYR 72% → 86%+15 pts
- P216:31Alexis Lafrenière Goal (17) Wrist Shot, assists: Gabe Perreault (8), Mika Zibanejad (34)CGY 0 – 3 NYR · NYR 89% → 96% +8NYR 89% → 96%+8 pts
- P317:42Alexis Lafrenière Goal (18) Slap Shot, assists: Gabe Perreault (9), Urho Vaakanainen (5)CGY 0 – 4 NYR · NYR >99% → >99% +0NYR >99% → >99%+0 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Rangers 53%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NHL favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 51.2% of 926 graded games.
- Market
- NYR 53%
- ML CGY +105 / NYR -125
- Pre-line forecast
- NYR 53%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- NYR 56%
- Ratings vs. market
- +2.8 pts
- NYR: Elo 56.0%, market 53.2%
- Fair odds
- NYR -114
- CGY +114 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- CGY 2.7 – 2.8 NYR
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 5.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | CGY | NYR | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1453 | 1469 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +35 | Worth 35 Elo in the NHL |
| Rest | −30 | −30 | NYR and CGY on the second night of a back-to-back |
| Starting goalies | −1 | −10 | CGY: Dustin Wolf: team allows 0.01 more goals than with its usual starter (≈45 weighted starts) · NYR: Jonathan Quick: team allows 0.25 more goals than with its usual starter (≈37 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | NYR +42 Elo | NYR 56.0% | |
| Market-implied ratings | NYR 52.5% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | NYR 53.2% | 20% Elo, 80% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | NYR 53.2% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Overtime and shootout losses count as losses in these records. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest. Shot share is a team's share of the shots on goal in its games. PDO adds shooting and save percentages: far from 100 tends to even out.
| CGY | Stat | NYR |
|---|---|---|
| 32nd of 322.5 | Goals scored | 2.826th of 32 |
| 16th of 323.1 | Goals allowed | 3.218th of 32 |
| 30th of 32−0.6 | Margin | −0.426th of 32 |
| 20th of 3249.3% | Shot share | 46.7%28th of 32 |
| 6th of 3290.4% | Save percentage | 90.1%10th of 32 |
| 19th of 324–6 | Last 10 | 3–726th of 32 |
| 32nd of 329–22 | Road vs home | 8–2131st of 32 |
| 28th of 321496 | Opponent Elo | 150210th of 32 |
| 29th of 321453 | Elo rating | 146926th of 32 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  CGY |  NYR |
|---|---|---|
| Puck line | 33–30 | 31–32 |
| Last 10 | 4–6 | 5–5 |
| Favorite | 7–8 | 6–20 |
| Underdog | 26–22 | 25–12 |
| Overs–unders | 33–30 | 30–33 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 4–6 | 6–4 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
CGY 3–2 NYR in their last 5 meetings; the forecast called 1 of 5.