New York Rangers at Winnipeg Jets, NHL forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors WPG; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Rangers- Alexis LafreniereGoals1
- Braden SchneiderAssists2
- Tye KartyePoints2
Jets- Isak RosenGoals1
- Gustav NyquistAssists1
- Kyle ConnorPoints1
Scoring summary
- P319:09Noah Laba Goal (8) Wrist Shot, assists: Tye Kartye (9), Vincent Trocheck (33)6–3
- P311:08Adam Edstrom Goal (3) Snap Shot, assists: Vincent Trocheck (32), Conor Sheary (9)5–3
- P36:57Gabe Perreault Goal (7) Tip-In, assists: Braden Schneider (13), Alexis Lafrenière (25)4–3
- P34:19Gabriel Vilardi Goal (25) Backhand, assists: Adam Lowry (13), Cole Perfetti (16)3–3
- P31:15Tye Kartye Goal (5) Tip-In, assists: Matthew Robertson (9), Braden Schneider (12)3–2
- P217:49Kyle Connor Goal (29) Wrist Shot, assists: Mark Scheifele (49), Elias Salomonsson (2)2–2
- P27:36Alexis Lafrenière Goal (19) Tip-In, assists: Will Borgen (7), Gabe Perreault (10)2–1
- P22:21Isak Rosen Goal (4) Wrist Shot, assists: Jacob Bryson (4), Gustav Nyquist (10)1–1
- P11:08Adam Fox Goal (5) Slap Shot, assists: Mika Zibanejad (35)1–0
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- P27:36Alexis Lafrenière Goal (19) Tip-In, assists: Will Borgen (7), Gabe Perreault (10)NYR 2 – 1 WPG · NYR 44% → 63% +20NYR 44% → 63%+20 pts
- P217:49Kyle Connor Goal (29) Wrist Shot, assists: Mark Scheifele (49), Elias Salomonsson (2)NYR 2 – 2 WPG · WPG 32% → 55% +23WPG 32% → 55%+23 pts
- P31:15Tye Kartye Goal (5) Tip-In, assists: Matthew Robertson (9), Braden Schneider (12)NYR 3 – 2 WPG · NYR 45% → 70% +25NYR 45% → 70%+25 pts
- P34:19Gabriel Vilardi Goal (25) Backhand, assists: Adam Lowry (13), Cole Perfetti (16)NYR 3 – 3 WPG · WPG 27% → 54% +27WPG 27% → 54%+27 pts
- P36:57Gabe Perreault Goal (7) Tip-In, assists: Braden Schneider (13), Alexis Lafrenière (25)NYR 4 – 3 WPG · NYR 46% → 75% +29NYR 46% → 75%+29 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Jets 58%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NHL favorites the forecast gave 55–60% have won 56.4% of 1,035 graded games.
- Market
- WPG 58%
- ML NYR +130 / WPG -155
- Pre-line forecast
- WPG 57%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- WPG 58%
- Ratings vs. market
- −0.7 pts
- WPG: Elo 57.6%, market 58.3%
- Fair odds
- WPG -140
- NYR +140 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- NYR 2.5 – 3.0 WPG
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 5.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | NYR | WPG | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1473 | 1501 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +35 | Worth 35 Elo in the NHL |
| Starting goalies | +10 | +1 | NYR: Igor Shesterkin: team allows 0.26 fewer goals than with its usual starter (≈48 weighted starts) · WPG: Connor Hellebuyck: team allows 0.03 fewer goals than with its usual starter (≈49 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | WPG +53 Elo | WPG 57.6% | |
| Market-implied ratings | WPG 56.7% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | WPG 56.9% | 20% Elo, 80% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | WPG 58.3% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Overtime and shootout losses count as losses in these records. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest. Shot share is a team's share of the shots on goal in its games. PDO adds shooting and save percentages: far from 100 tends to even out.
| NYR | Stat | WPG |
|---|---|---|
| 26th of 322.8 | Goals scored | 2.824th of 32 |
| 16th of 323.1 | Goals allowed | 3.115th of 32 |
| 23rd of 32−0.3 | Margin | −0.221st of 32 |
| 27th of 3246.9% | Shot share | 48.6%24th of 32 |
| 10th of 3290.2% | Save percentage | 89.8%18th of 32 |
| 17th of 324–6 | Last 10 | 5–513th of 32 |
| 15th of 3216–17 | Road vs home | 15–1723rd of 32 |
| 11th of 321502 | Opponent Elo | 149924th of 32 |
| 25th of 321473 | Elo rating | 150117th of 32 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  NYR |  WPG |
|---|---|---|
| Puck line | 32–32 | 28–35 |
| Last 10 | 6–4 | 4–6 |
| Favorite | 7–20 | 11–28 |
| Underdog | 25–12 | 17–7 |
| Overs–unders | 30–34 | 33–30 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 5–5 | 2–8 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
NYR 1–3 WPG in their last 4 meetings; the forecast called 1 of 4.