Vancouver Canucks at Winnipeg Jets, NHL forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors WPG; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Canucks- Linus KarlssonGoals1
- Teddy BluegerAssists2
- Linus KarlssonPoints2
Jets- Mark ScheifeleGoals1
- Mark ScheifeleAssists2
- Mark ScheifelePoints3
Scoring summary
- OT1:49Josh Morrissey Goal (11) Slap Shot, assists: Mark Scheifele (48), Kyle Connor (43)2–3
- P315:12Gabriel Vilardi Goal (24) Backhand, assists: Mark Scheifele (47), Josh Morrissey (33)2–2
- P30:33Liam Ohgren Goal (6) Snap Shot, assists: Teddy Blueger (5), Linus Karlsson (16)2–1
- P219:48Mark Scheifele Goal (30) Wrist Shot, assists: Jonathan Toews (14)1–1
- P17:28Linus Karlsson Goal (12) Wrist Shot, assists: Max Sasson (4), Teddy Blueger (4)1–0
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- P17:28Linus Karlsson Goal (12) Wrist Shot, assists: Max Sasson (4), Teddy Blueger (4)VAN 1 – 0 WPG · VAN 30% → 45% +15VAN 30% → 45%+15 pts
- P219:48Mark Scheifele Goal (30) Wrist Shot, assists: Jonathan Toews (14)VAN 1 – 1 WPG · WPG 38% → 63% +25WPG 38% → 63%+25 pts
- P30:33Liam Ohgren Goal (6) Snap Shot, assists: Teddy Blueger (5), Linus Karlsson (16)VAN 2 – 1 WPG · VAN 37% → 63% +25VAN 37% → 63%+25 pts
- P315:12Gabriel Vilardi Goal (24) Backhand, assists: Mark Scheifele (47), Josh Morrissey (33)VAN 2 – 2 WPG · WPG 13% → 56% +43WPG 13% → 56%+43 pts
- OT1:49Josh Morrissey Goal (11) Slap Shot, assists: Mark Scheifele (48), Kyle Connor (43)VAN 2 – 3 WPG · WPG 55% → 96% +41WPG 55% → 96%+41 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Jets 71%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NHL favorites the forecast gave 70–75% have won 76.2% of 172 graded games.
- Market
- WPG 71%
- ML VAN +235 / WPG -290
- Pre-line forecast
- WPG 70%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- WPG 72%
- Ratings vs. market
- +0.8 pts
- WPG: Elo 72.1%, market 71.4%
- Fair odds
- WPG -249
- VAN +249 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- VAN 2.1 – 3.4 WPG
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 5.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | VAN | WPG | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1417 | 1505 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +35 | Worth 35 Elo in the NHL |
| Rest | −30 | — | VAN on the second night of a back-to-back |
| Starting goalies | −11 | +2 | VAN: Kevin Lankinen: team allows 0.27 more goals than with its usual starter (≈43 weighted starts) · WPG: Connor Hellebuyck: team allows 0.04 fewer goals than with its usual starter (≈49 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | WPG +165 Elo | WPG 72.1% | |
| Market-implied ratings | WPG 69.7% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | WPG 70.2% | 20% Elo, 80% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | WPG 71.4% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Overtime and shootout losses count as losses in these records. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest. Shot share is a team's share of the shots on goal in its games. PDO adds shooting and save percentages: far from 100 tends to even out.
| VAN | Stat | WPG |
|---|---|---|
| 29th of 322.6 | Goals scored | 2.924th of 32 |
| 32nd of 323.8 | Goals allowed | 3.116th of 32 |
| 32nd of 32−1.1 | Margin | −0.220th of 32 |
| 27th of 3247.0% | Shot share | 48.7%23rd of 32 |
| 29th of 3288.3% | Save percentage | 89.8%19th of 32 |
| 31st of 322–8 | Last 10 | 5–514th of 32 |
| 24th of 3213–19 | Road vs home | 14–1624th of 32 |
| 19th of 321500 | Opponent Elo | 150017th of 32 |
| 31st of 321417 | Elo rating | 150515th of 32 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  VAN |  WPG |
|---|---|---|
| Puck line | 30–32 | 28–33 |
| Last 10 | 4–6 | 5–5 |
| Favorite | 1–9 | 11–26 |
| Underdog | 29–23 | 17–7 |
| Overs–unders | 35–27 | 33–28 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 6–4 | 3–7 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
VAN 2–6 WPG in their last 8 meetings; the forecast called 6 of 8.