Anaheim Ducks at Winnipeg Jets, NHL forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors WPG; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Ducks- Ryan PoehlingGoals1
- Ryan PoehlingAssists1
- Alex KillornPoints2
Jets- Morgan BarronGoals1
- Elias SalomonssonAssists1
- Morgan BarronPoints1
Scoring summary
- P319:34Jackson LaCombe Goal (8) Wrist Shot, assists: Jacob Trouba (21)4–1
- P28:08Alex Killorn Goal (9) Wrist Shot, assists: Ryan Poehling (19)3–1
- P26:38Ryan Poehling Goal (8) Tip-In, assists: Alex Killorn (13), Jackson LaCombe (37)2–1
- P26:24Tim Washe Goal (2) Snap Shot, assists: Jansen Harkins (4), Radko Gudas (11)1–1
- P25:04Morgan Barron Goal (10) Tip-In, assists: Elias Salomonsson (1), Cole Perfetti (15)0–1
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- P25:04Morgan Barron Goal (10) Tip-In, assists: Elias Salomonsson (1), Cole Perfetti (15)ANA 0 – 1 WPG · WPG 53% → 71% +18WPG 53% → 71%+18 pts
- P26:24Tim Washe Goal (2) Snap Shot, assists: Jansen Harkins (4), Radko Gudas (11)ANA 1 – 1 WPG · ANA 29% → 47% +18ANA 29% → 47%+18 pts
- P26:38Ryan Poehling Goal (8) Tip-In, assists: Alex Killorn (13), Jackson LaCombe (37)ANA 2 – 1 WPG · ANA 47% → 66% +19ANA 47% → 66%+19 pts
- P28:08Alex Killorn Goal (9) Wrist Shot, assists: Ryan Poehling (19)ANA 3 – 1 WPG · ANA 66% → 82% +16ANA 66% → 82%+16 pts
- P319:34Jackson LaCombe Goal (8) Wrist Shot, assists: Jacob Trouba (21)ANA 4 – 1 WPG · ANA 100% → 100% +0ANA 100% → 100%+0 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Jets 54%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NHL favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 51.2% of 926 graded games.
- Market
- WPG 54%
- ML ANA +110 / WPG -130
- Pre-line forecast
- WPG 55%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- WPG 59%
- Ratings vs. market
- +4.9 pts
- WPG: Elo 59.2%, market 54.3%
- Fair odds
- WPG -119
- ANA +119 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- ANA 3.1 – 3.4 WPG
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 6.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | ANA | WPG | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1477 | 1506 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +35 | Worth 35 Elo in the NHL |
| Starting goalies | +2 | +2 | ANA: Lukas Dostal: team allows 0.06 fewer goals than with its usual starter (≈46 weighted starts) · WPG: Connor Hellebuyck: team allows 0.06 fewer goals than with its usual starter (≈49 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | WPG +65 Elo | WPG 59.2% | |
| Market-implied ratings | WPG 54.0% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | WPG 55.0% | 20% Elo, 80% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | WPG 54.3% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Overtime and shootout losses count as losses in these records. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest. Shot share is a team's share of the shots on goal in its games. PDO adds shooting and save percentages: far from 100 tends to even out.
| ANA | Stat | WPG |
|---|---|---|
| 11th of 323.3 | Goals scored | 2.924th of 32 |
| 29th of 323.5 | Goals allowed | 3.015th of 32 |
| 19th of 32−0.2 | Margin | −0.220th of 32 |
| 12th of 3250.8% | Shot share | 48.9%22nd of 32 |
| 23rd of 3288.8% | Save percentage | 89.8%18th of 32 |
| 5th of 327–3 | Last 10 | 5–513th of 32 |
| 21st of 3213–17 | Road vs home | 15–1622nd of 32 |
| 12th of 321501 | Opponent Elo | 149925th of 32 |
| 23rd of 321477 | Elo rating | 150614th of 32 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  ANA |  WPG |
|---|---|---|
| Puck line | 31–32 | 28–34 |
| Last 10 | 4–6 | 4–6 |
| Favorite | 4–15 | 11–27 |
| Underdog | 27–17 | 17–7 |
| Overs–unders | 38–25 | 33–29 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 4–6 | 2–8 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
ANA 4–4 WPG in their last 8 meetings; the forecast called 3 of 8.