Chicago Blackhawks at Vegas Golden Knights, NHL forecast
You didn't pick this one.
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors VGK; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Blackhawks
Golden Knights- Pavel DorofeyevGoals2
- Mitch MarnerAssists2
- Pavel DorofeyevPoints3
Scoring summary
- P212:51Pavel Dorofeyev Goal (34) Wrist Shot, assists: Mark Stone (41), Mitch Marner (50)0–4
- P112:00Keegan Kolesar Goal (6) Tip-In, assists: Jeremy Lauzon (10), Nic Dowd (13)0–3
- P111:35Rasmus Andersson Goal (12) Wrist Shot, assists: Noah Hanifin (20), Pavel Dorofeyev (23)0–2
- P18:33Pavel Dorofeyev Goal (33) Slap Shot, assists: Mitch Marner (49), Mark Stone (40)0–1
Turning points
The 4 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- P18:33Pavel Dorofeyev Goal (33) Slap Shot, assists: Mitch Marner (49), Mark Stone (40)CHI 0 – 1 VGK · VGK 65% → 78% +13VGK 65% → 78%+13 pts
- P111:35Rasmus Andersson Goal (12) Wrist Shot, assists: Noah Hanifin (20), Pavel Dorofeyev (23)CHI 0 – 2 VGK · VGK 78% → 88% +10VGK 78% → 88%+10 pts
- P112:00Keegan Kolesar Goal (6) Tip-In, assists: Jeremy Lauzon (10), Nic Dowd (13)CHI 0 – 3 VGK · VGK 88% → 95% +6VGK 88% → 95%+6 pts
- P212:51Pavel Dorofeyev Goal (34) Wrist Shot, assists: Mark Stone (41), Mitch Marner (50)CHI 0 – 4 VGK · VGK 97% → >99% +2VGK 97% → >99%+2 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Golden Knights 66%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NHL favorites the forecast gave 65–70% have won 67.6% of 306 graded games.
- Market
- VGK 66%
- ML CHI +185 / VGK -225
- Pre-line forecast
- VGK 65%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- VGK 66%
- Ratings vs. market
- −0.1 pts
- VGK: Elo 66.3%, market 66.4%
- Fair odds
- VGK -197
- CHI +197 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- CHI 2.3 – 3.2 VGK
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 5.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | CHI | VGK | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1422 | 1508 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +35 | Worth 35 Elo in the NHL |
| Starting goalies | +7 | +3 | CHI: Spencer Knight: team allows 0.18 fewer goals than with its usual starter (≈40 weighted starts) · VGK: Adin Hill: team allows 0.08 fewer goals than with its usual starter (≈45 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | VGK +117 Elo | VGK 66.3% | |
| Market-implied ratings | VGK 65.2% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | VGK 65.4% | 20% Elo, 80% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | VGK 66.4% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Overtime and shootout losses count as losses in these records. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest. Shot share is a team's share of the shots on goal in its games. PDO adds shooting and save percentages: far from 100 tends to even out.
| CHI | Stat | VGK |
|---|---|---|
| 27th of 322.7 | Goals scored | 3.313th of 32 |
| 23rd of 323.2 | Goals allowed | 3.222nd of 32 |
| 29th of 32−0.5 | Margin | +0.113th of 32 |
| 32nd of 3245.5% | Shot share | 53.5%4th of 32 |
| 15th of 3289.9% | Save percentage | 88.0%30th of 32 |
| 20th of 324–6 | Last 10 | 4–620th of 32 |
| 28th of 3212–20 | Road vs home | 15–1725th of 32 |
| 15th of 321501 | Opponent Elo | 149727th of 32 |
| 31st of 321422 | Elo rating | 150813th of 32 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  CHI |  VGK |
|---|---|---|
| Puck line | 42–23 | 26–40 |
| Last 10 | 6–4 | 7–3 |
| Favorite | 0–3 | 14–38 |
| Underdog | 42–20 | 12–2 |
| Overs–unders | 27–38 | 36–30 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 3–7 | 3–7 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
CHI 3–5 VGK in their last 8 meetings; the forecast called 4 of 8.