Toronto Maple Leafs at Minnesota Wild, NHL forecast
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Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors MIN; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Maple Leafs- Bo GroulxGoals2
- Matias MaccelliAssists1
- Bo GroulxPoints2
Wild- Vladimir TarasenkoGoals2
- Ryan HartmanAssists2
- Vladimir TarasenkoPoints2
Scoring summary
- P319:23Matthew Knies Goal (18) Wrist Shot, assists: none4–2
- P35:14Vladimir Tarasenko Goal (18) Wrist Shot, assists: Ryan Hartman (15), Mats Zuccarello (29)3–2
- P34:51Vladimir Tarasenko Goal (17) Snap Shot, assists: Mats Zuccarello (28), Ryan Hartman (14)3–1
- P28:18Benoit-Olivier Groulx Goal (3) Wrist Shot, assists: none3–0
- P22:19Benoit-Olivier Groulx Goal (2) Deflected, assists: Troy Stecher (10), Nicholas Robertson (16)2–0
- P21:07Morgan Rielly Goal (9) Wrist Shot, assists: Matias Maccelli (19), John Tavares (32)1–0
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- P21:07Morgan Rielly Goal (9) Wrist Shot, assists: Matias Maccelli (19), John Tavares (32)TOR 1 – 0 MIN · TOR 34% → 52% +18TOR 34% → 52%+18 pts
- P22:19Benoit-Olivier Groulx Goal (2) Deflected, assists: Troy Stecher (10), Nicholas Robertson (16)TOR 2 – 0 MIN · TOR 52% → 70% +17TOR 52% → 70%+17 pts
- P28:18Benoit-Olivier Groulx Goal (3) Wrist Shot, assists: noneTOR 3 – 0 MIN · TOR 74% → 87% +14TOR 74% → 87%+14 pts
- P34:51Vladimir Tarasenko Goal (17) Snap Shot, assists: Mats Zuccarello (28), Ryan Hartman (14)TOR 3 – 1 MIN · MIN 3% → 12% +9MIN 3% → 12%+9 pts
- P35:14Vladimir Tarasenko Goal (18) Wrist Shot, assists: Ryan Hartman (15), Mats Zuccarello (29)TOR 3 – 2 MIN · MIN 11% → 32% +20MIN 11% → 32%+20 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Wild 70%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NHL favorites the forecast gave 65–70% have won 67.6% of 306 graded games.
- Market
- MIN 70%
- ML TOR +215 / MIN -265
- Pre-line forecast
- MIN 64%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- MIN 60%
- Ratings vs. market
- −9.5 pts
- MIN: Elo 60.1%, market 69.6%
- Fair odds
- MIN -229
- TOR +229 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- TOR 2.7 – 3.8 MIN
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 6.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | TOR | MIN | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1486 | 1535 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +35 | Worth 35 Elo in the NHL |
| Rest | −30 | −30 | MIN and TOR on the second night of a back-to-back |
| Starting goalies | +5 | −7 | TOR: Anthony Stolarz: team allows 0.13 fewer goals than with its usual starter (≈41 weighted starts) · MIN: Jesper Wallstedt: team allows 0.18 more goals than with its usual starter (≈23 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | MIN +71 Elo | MIN 60.1% | |
| Market-implied ratings | MIN 65.6% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | MIN 64.5% | 20% Elo, 80% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | MIN 69.6% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Overtime and shootout losses count as losses in these records. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest. Shot share is a team's share of the shots on goal in its games. PDO adds shooting and save percentages: far from 100 tends to even out.
| TOR | Stat | MIN |
|---|---|---|
| 15th of 323.1 | Goals scored | 3.310th of 32 |
| 30th of 323.5 | Goals allowed | 2.96th of 32 |
| 25th of 32−0.4 | Margin | +0.56th of 32 |
| 31st of 3245.9% | Shot share | 49.1%21st of 32 |
| 13th of 3290.0% | Save percentage | 91.1%2nd of 32 |
| 32nd of 321–9 | Last 10 | 5–512th of 32 |
| 31st of 3211–21 | Road vs home | 19–1613th of 32 |
| 7th of 321503 | Opponent Elo | 149824th of 32 |
| 20th of 321486 | Elo rating | 15356th of 32 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  TOR |  MIN |
|---|---|---|
| Puck line | 27–40 | 35–32 |
| Last 10 | 3–7 | 5–5 |
| Favorite | 7–25 | 12–27 |
| Underdog | 20–15 | 23–5 |
| Overs–unders | 38–29 | 37–30 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 5–5 | 3–7 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
TOR 2–3 MIN in their last 5 meetings; the forecast called 3 of 5.