Anaheim Ducks at Toronto Maple Leafs, NHL forecast
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Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors TOR; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Ducks- Alex KillornGoals1
- Jeffrey VielAssists2
- Jeffrey VielPoints2
Maple Leafs- Matthew KniesGoals1
- Matthew KniesAssists3
- Matthew KniesPoints4
Scoring summary
- P319:34Alex Killorn Goal (10) Wrist Shot, assists: Jeffrey Viel (3), Jacob Trouba (22)4–6
- P318:12Matthew Knies Goal (17) Wrist Shot, assists: Jake McCabe (17), John Tavares (31)3–6
- P38:35Benoit-Olivier Groulx Goal (1) Wrist Shot, assists: Brandon Carlo (6)3–5
- P30:36William Nylander Goal (23) Wrist Shot, assists: Matthew Knies (38), Matias Maccelli (18)3–4
- P216:26John Tavares Goal (23) Wrist Shot, assists: Matias Maccelli (17), Matthew Knies (37)3–3
- P210:47Auston Matthews Goal (27) Wrist Shot, assists: Matthew Knies (36), William Nylander (39)3–2
- P22:55Pavel Mintyukov Goal (8) Snap Shot, assists: Ryan Poehling (20), Jeffrey Viel (2)3–1
- P114:26Ian Moore Goal (4) Snap Shot, assists: Jansen Harkins (5)2–1
- P112:19Cutter Gauthier Goal (33) Wrist Shot, assists: Chris Kreider (19), Jackson LaCombe (38)1–1
- P17:19Matias Maccelli Goal (14) Wrist Shot, assists: none0–1
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- P112:19Cutter Gauthier Goal (33) Wrist Shot, assists: Chris Kreider (19), Jackson LaCombe (38)ANA 1 – 1 TOR · ANA 34% → 50% +16ANA 34% → 50%+16 pts
- P114:26Ian Moore Goal (4) Snap Shot, assists: Jansen Harkins (5)ANA 2 – 1 TOR · ANA 50% → 66% +16ANA 50% → 66%+16 pts
- P216:26John Tavares Goal (23) Wrist Shot, assists: Matias Maccelli (17), Matthew Knies (37)ANA 3 – 3 TOR · TOR 28% → 50% +22TOR 28% → 50%+22 pts
- P30:36William Nylander Goal (23) Wrist Shot, assists: Matthew Knies (38), Matias Maccelli (18)ANA 3 – 4 TOR · TOR 50% → 74% +24TOR 50% → 74%+24 pts
- P38:35Benoit-Olivier Groulx Goal (1) Wrist Shot, assists: Brandon Carlo (6)ANA 3 – 5 TOR · TOR 80% → 95% +15TOR 80% → 95%+15 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Maple Leafs 50%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NHL favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 51.2% of 926 graded games.
- Market
- TOR 50%
- ML ANA -110 / TOR -110
- Pre-line forecast
- TOR 55%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- TOR 54%
- Ratings vs. market
- +3.7 pts
- TOR: Elo 53.7%, market 50.0%
- Fair odds
- TOR -100
- ANA -100 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- ANA 3.3 – 3.3 TOR
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 6.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | ANA | TOR | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1482 | 1485 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +35 | Worth 35 Elo in the NHL |
| Starting goalies | +4 | −7 | ANA: Lukas Dostal: team allows 0.10 fewer goals than with its usual starter (≈46 weighted starts) · TOR: Joseph Woll: team allows 0.18 more goals than with its usual starter (≈43 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | TOR +26 Elo | TOR 53.7% | |
| Market-implied ratings | TOR 55.2% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | TOR 54.9% | 20% Elo, 80% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | TOR 50.0% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Overtime and shootout losses count as losses in these records. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest. Shot share is a team's share of the shots on goal in its games. PDO adds shooting and save percentages: far from 100 tends to even out.
| ANA | Stat | TOR |
|---|---|---|
| 11th of 323.4 | Goals scored | 3.116th of 32 |
| 29th of 323.5 | Goals allowed | 3.531st of 32 |
| 18th of 32−0.1 | Margin | −0.425th of 32 |
| 10th of 3251.1% | Shot share | 46.2%30th of 32 |
| 23rd of 3288.8% | Save percentage | 89.9%14th of 32 |
| 2nd of 328–2 | Last 10 | 2–831st of 32 |
| 20th of 3214–17 | Road vs home | 16–1822nd of 32 |
| 15th of 321501 | Opponent Elo | 15036th of 32 |
| 21st of 321482 | Elo rating | 148520th of 32 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  ANA |  TOR |
|---|---|---|
| Puck line | 32–32 | 25–40 |
| Last 10 | 5–5 | 3–7 |
| Favorite | 4–15 | 7–25 |
| Underdog | 28–17 | 18–15 |
| Overs–unders | 38–26 | 37–28 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 4–6 | 5–5 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
ANA 0–4 TOR in their last 4 meetings; the forecast called 3 of 4.