Toronto Maple Leafs at Montreal Canadiens, NHL forecast
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Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors MTL; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Maple Leafs- William NylanderGoals1
- Easton CowanAssists1
- William NylanderPoints1
Canadiens- Phillip DanaultGoals1
- Kaiden GuhleAssists1
- Phillip DanaultPoints1
Scoring summary
- P319:32Jake Evans Goal (10) Wrist Shot, assists: Mike Matheson (27)1–3
- P214:33William Nylander Goal (22) Snap Shot, assists: Easton Cowan (12)1–2
- P114:41Phillip Danault Goal (5) Snap Shot, assists: Kaiden Guhle (5), Lane Hutson (54)0–2
- P14:46Oliver Kapanen Goal (20) Snap Shot, assists: Alex Newhook (9), Ivan Demidov (36)0–1
Turning points
The 4 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- P14:46Oliver Kapanen Goal (20) Snap Shot, assists: Alex Newhook (9), Ivan Demidov (36)TOR 0 – 1 MTL · MTL 60% → 74% +14MTL 60% → 74%+14 pts
- P114:41Phillip Danault Goal (5) Snap Shot, assists: Kaiden Guhle (5), Lane Hutson (54)TOR 0 – 2 MTL · MTL 74% → 86% +12MTL 74% → 86%+12 pts
- P214:33William Nylander Goal (22) Snap Shot, assists: Easton Cowan (12)TOR 1 – 2 MTL · TOR 10% → 23% +13TOR 10% → 23%+13 pts
- P319:32Jake Evans Goal (10) Wrist Shot, assists: Mike Matheson (27)TOR 1 – 3 MTL · MTL >99% → 100% +0MTL >99% → 100%+0 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Canadiens 60%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NHL favorites the forecast gave 60–65% have won 62.4% of 599 graded games.
- Market
- MTL 60%
- ML TOR +142 / MTL -170
- Pre-line forecast
- MTL 60%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- MTL 60%
- Ratings vs. market
- −0.7 pts
- MTL: Elo 59.7%, market 60.4%
- Fair odds
- MTL -152
- TOR +152 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- TOR 3.0 – 3.5 MTL
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 6.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | TOR | MTL | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1487 | 1512 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +35 | Worth 35 Elo in the NHL |
| Starting goalies | −9 | 0 | TOR: Joseph Woll: team allows 0.21 more goals than with its usual starter (≈43 weighted starts) · MTL: Jakub Dobes: team allows 0.01 fewer goals than with its usual starter (≈30 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | MTL +68 Elo | MTL 59.7% | |
| Market-implied ratings | MTL 59.8% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | MTL 59.8% | 20% Elo, 80% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | MTL 60.4% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Overtime and shootout losses count as losses in these records. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest. Shot share is a team's share of the shots on goal in its games. PDO adds shooting and save percentages: far from 100 tends to even out.
| TOR | Stat | MTL |
|---|---|---|
| 17th of 323.2 | Goals scored | 3.63rd of 32 |
| 31st of 323.5 | Goals allowed | 3.426th of 32 |
| 24th of 32−0.4 | Margin | +0.210th of 32 |
| 29th of 3246.3% | Shot share | 48.8%22nd of 32 |
| 15th of 3289.8% | Save percentage | 88.6%26th of 32 |
| 26th of 323–7 | Last 10 | 6–48th of 32 |
| 28th of 3211–19 | Road vs home | 17–1311th of 32 |
| 9th of 321503 | Opponent Elo | 15038th of 32 |
| 20th of 321487 | Elo rating | 151211th of 32 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  TOR |  MTL |
|---|---|---|
| Puck line | 25–39 | 35–27 |
| Last 10 | 3–7 | 7–3 |
| Favorite | 7–25 | 7–23 |
| Underdog | 18–14 | 28–4 |
| Overs–unders | 37–27 | 40–22 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 5–5 | 7–3 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
TOR 7–3 MTL in their last 10 meetings; the forecast called 6 of 10.