Toronto Maple Leafs at Buffalo Sabres, NHL forecast
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Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors BUF; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Maple Leafs- Max DomiGoals1
- Nick RobertsonAssists1
- Max DomiPoints1
Sabres- Owen PowerGoals1
- Sam CarrickAssists1
- Jack QuinnPoints1
Scoring summary
- SO0:00Alex Tuch Goal Wrist Shot0–2
- SO0:00Jack Quinn Goal Wrist Shot0–2
- P211:21Jack Quinn Goal (16) Wrist Shot, assists: Noah Ostlund (15), Ryan McLeod (37)2–2
- P20:53Max Domi Goal (10) Wrist Shot, assists: William Nylander (40), Matthew Knies (39)2–1
- P16:09Dakota Joshua Goal (8) Snap Shot, assists: Nicholas Robertson (15)1–1
- P12:01Owen Power Goal (7) Wrist Shot, assists: Zach Benson (22), Sam Carrick (7)0–1
Turning points
The 4 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- P12:01Owen Power Goal (7) Wrist Shot, assists: Zach Benson (22), Sam Carrick (7)TOR 0 – 1 BUF · BUF 67% → 79% +12BUF 67% → 79%+12 pts
- P16:09Dakota Joshua Goal (8) Snap Shot, assists: Nicholas Robertson (15)TOR 1 – 1 BUF · TOR 21% → 34% +13TOR 21% → 34%+13 pts
- P20:53Max Domi Goal (10) Wrist Shot, assists: William Nylander (40), Matthew Knies (39)TOR 2 – 1 BUF · TOR 36% → 54% +18TOR 36% → 54%+18 pts
- P211:21Jack Quinn Goal (16) Wrist Shot, assists: Noah Ostlund (15), Ryan McLeod (37)TOR 2 – 2 BUF · BUF 41% → 62% +21BUF 41% → 62%+21 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Sabres 67%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NHL favorites the forecast gave 65–70% have won 67.6% of 306 graded games.
- Market
- BUF 67%
- ML TOR +190 / BUF -230
- Pre-line forecast
- BUF 62%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- BUF 65%
- Ratings vs. market
- −2.1 pts
- BUF: Elo 64.8%, market 66.9%
- Fair odds
- BUF -202
- TOR +202 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- TOR 2.8 – 3.7 BUF
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 6.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | TOR | BUF | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1488 | 1547 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +35 | Worth 35 Elo in the NHL |
| Starting goalies | −7 | +5 | TOR: Joseph Woll: team allows 0.18 more goals than with its usual starter (≈44 weighted starts) · BUF: Alex Lyon: team allows 0.12 fewer goals than with its usual starter (≈43 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | BUF +106 Elo | BUF 64.8% | |
| Market-implied ratings | BUF 61.3% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | BUF 62.0% | 20% Elo, 80% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | BUF 66.9% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Overtime and shootout losses count as losses in these records. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest. Shot share is a team's share of the shots on goal in its games. PDO adds shooting and save percentages: far from 100 tends to even out.
| TOR | Stat | BUF |
|---|---|---|
| 15th of 323.2 | Goals scored | 3.56th of 32 |
| 31st of 323.5 | Goals allowed | 3.010th of 32 |
| 25th of 32−0.4 | Margin | +0.55th of 32 |
| 30th of 3246.1% | Shot share | 48.6%23rd of 32 |
| 14th of 3289.9% | Save percentage | 90.6%3rd of 32 |
| 31st of 322–8 | Last 10 | 8–22nd of 32 |
| 30th of 3211–20 | Road vs home | 21–126th of 32 |
| 9th of 321503 | Opponent Elo | 15037th of 32 |
| 20th of 321488 | Elo rating | 15475th of 32 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  TOR |  BUF |
|---|---|---|
| Puck line | 26–40 | 39–27 |
| Last 10 | 3–7 | 6–4 |
| Favorite | 7–25 | 14–17 |
| Underdog | 19–15 | 25–10 |
| Overs–unders | 38–28 | 33–33 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 6–4 | 4–6 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
TOR 6–4 BUF in their last 10 meetings; the forecast called 7 of 10.