Washington Capitals at Buffalo Sabres, NHL forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors BUF; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Capitals- Jakob ChychrunGoals1
- Trevor van RiemsdykAssists1
- Jakob ChychrunPoints1
Sabres- Sam CarrickGoals1
- Beck MalenstynAssists1
- Sam CarrickPoints1
Scoring summary
- P318:27Jakob Chychrun Goal (23) Snap Shot, assists: Aliaksei Protas (24), Trevor van Riemsdyk (7)2–1
- P22:14Ryan Leonard Goal (14) Snap Shot, assists: none1–1
- P16:02Sam Carrick Goal (6) Tip-In, assists: Beck Malenstyn (5), Owen Power (17)0–1
Turning points
The 3 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- P16:02Sam Carrick Goal (6) Tip-In, assists: Beck Malenstyn (5), Owen Power (17)WSH 0 – 1 BUF · BUF 65% → 78% +13BUF 65% → 78%+13 pts
- P22:14Ryan Leonard Goal (14) Snap Shot, assists: noneWSH 1 – 1 BUF · WSH 22% → 37% +16WSH 22% → 37%+16 pts
- P318:27Jakob Chychrun Goal (23) Snap Shot, assists: Aliaksei Protas (24), Trevor van Riemsdyk (7)WSH 2 – 1 BUF · WSH 47% → 99% +51WSH 47% → 99%+51 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Sabres 66%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NHL favorites the forecast gave 65–70% have won 67.6% of 306 graded games.
- Market
- BUF 66%
- ML WSH +180 / BUF -218
- Pre-line forecast
- BUF 63%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- BUF 67%
- Ratings vs. market
- +1.0 pts
- BUF: Elo 66.8%, market 65.7%
- Fair odds
- BUF -192
- WSH +192 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- WSH 2.8 – 3.7 BUF
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 6.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | WSH | BUF | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1506 | 1551 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +35 | Worth 35 Elo in the NHL |
| Rest | −30 | — | WSH on the second night of a back-to-back |
| Starting goalies | −13 | −2 | WSH: Charlie Lindgren: team allows 0.33 more goals than with its usual starter (≈44 weighted starts) · BUF: Ukko-Pekka Luukkonen: team allows 0.05 more goals than with its usual starter (≈46 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | BUF +121 Elo | BUF 66.8% | |
| Market-implied ratings | BUF 61.5% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | BUF 62.6% | 20% Elo, 80% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | BUF 65.7% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Overtime and shootout losses count as losses in these records. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest. Shot share is a team's share of the shots on goal in its games. PDO adds shooting and save percentages: far from 100 tends to even out.
| WSH | Stat | BUF |
|---|---|---|
| 15th of 323.2 | Goals scored | 3.65th of 32 |
| 11th of 323.0 | Goals allowed | 3.012th of 32 |
| 13th of 32+0.1 | Margin | +0.55th of 32 |
| 12th of 3250.8% | Shot share | 48.5%24th of 32 |
| 9th of 3290.2% | Save percentage | 90.6%5th of 32 |
| 13th of 325–5 | Last 10 | 8–22nd of 32 |
| 27th of 3212–20 | Road vs home | 21–115th of 32 |
| 18th of 321500 | Opponent Elo | 15038th of 32 |
| 13th of 321506 | Elo rating | 15515th of 32 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  WSH |  BUF |
|---|---|---|
| Puck line | 34–32 | 39–26 |
| Last 10 | 4–6 | 7–3 |
| Favorite | 20–25 | 14–16 |
| Underdog | 14–7 | 25–10 |
| Overs–unders | 30–36 | 33–32 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 2–8 | 5–5 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
WSH 2–5 BUF in their last 7 meetings; the forecast called 5 of 7.