San Jose Sharks at Buffalo Sabres, NHL forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors BUF; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Sharks- Alexander WennbergGoals1
- Alexander WennbergAssists1
- Alexander WennbergPoints2
Sabres- Jack QuinnGoals3
- Rasmus DahlinAssists3
- Jack QuinnPoints4
Scoring summary
- P317:14Jack Quinn Goal (15) Wrist Shot, assists: Ryan McLeod (36)3–6
- P36:56Alexander Wennberg Goal (13) Backhand, assists: Tyler Toffoli (24)3–5
- P30:42Jack Quinn Goal (14) Snap Shot, assists: Ryan McLeod (35), Rasmus Dahlin (47)2–5
- P219:29Kiefer Sherwood Goal (20) Snap Shot, assists: Mario Ferraro (11), Alexander Wennberg (28)2–4
- P28:51Jason Zucker Goal (20) Backhand, assists: Jack Quinn (28), Owen Power (16)1–4
- P24:59Beck Malenstyn Goal (6) Wrist Shot, assists: Peyton Krebs (21), Rasmus Dahlin (46)1–3
- P112:54Macklin Celebrini Goal (33) Wrist Shot, assists: Will Smith (26)1–2
- P15:39Alex Tuch Goal (28) Tip-In, assists: Rasmus Dahlin (45), Mattias Samuelsson (24)0–2
- P14:12Jack Quinn Goal (13) Wrist Shot, assists: Jason Zucker (16), Ryan McLeod (34)0–1
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- P14:12Jack Quinn Goal (13) Wrist Shot, assists: Jason Zucker (16), Ryan McLeod (34)SJ 0 – 1 BUF · BUF 64% → 77% +13BUF 64% → 77%+13 pts
- P15:39Alex Tuch Goal (28) Tip-In, assists: Rasmus Dahlin (45), Mattias Samuelsson (24)SJ 0 – 2 BUF · BUF 77% → 87% +10BUF 77% → 87%+10 pts
- P112:54Macklin Celebrini Goal (33) Wrist Shot, assists: Will Smith (26)SJ 1 – 2 BUF · SJ 12% → 23% +10SJ 12% → 23%+10 pts
- P24:59Beck Malenstyn Goal (6) Wrist Shot, assists: Peyton Krebs (21), Rasmus Dahlin (46)SJ 1 – 3 BUF · BUF 78% → 89% +12BUF 78% → 89%+12 pts
- P28:51Jason Zucker Goal (20) Backhand, assists: Jack Quinn (28), Owen Power (16)SJ 1 – 4 BUF · BUF 90% → 96% +6BUF 90% → 96%+6 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Sabres 64%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NHL favorites the forecast gave 60–65% have won 62.4% of 599 graded games.
- Market
- BUF 64%
- ML SJ +170 / BUF -205
- Pre-line forecast
- BUF 66%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- BUF 72%
- Ratings vs. market
- +7.1 pts
- BUF: Elo 71.6%, market 64.5%
- Fair odds
- BUF -181
- SJ +181 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- SJ 2.8 – 3.7 BUF
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 6.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | SJ | BUF | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1436 | 1548 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +35 | Worth 35 Elo in the NHL |
| Starting goalies | −8 | +5 | SJ: Yaroslav Askarov: team allows 0.20 more goals than with its usual starter (≈33 weighted starts) · BUF: Alex Lyon: team allows 0.13 fewer goals than with its usual starter (≈43 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | BUF +160 Elo | BUF 71.6% | |
| Market-implied ratings | BUF 63.9% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | BUF 65.5% | 20% Elo, 80% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | BUF 64.5% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Overtime and shootout losses count as losses in these records. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest. Shot share is a team's share of the shots on goal in its games. PDO adds shooting and save percentages: far from 100 tends to even out.
| SJ | Stat | BUF |
|---|---|---|
| 18th of 323.1 | Goals scored | 3.56th of 32 |
| 29th of 323.5 | Goals allowed | 3.013th of 32 |
| 25th of 32−0.4 | Margin | +0.55th of 32 |
| 30th of 3246.2% | Shot share | 48.4%24th of 32 |
| 21st of 3289.2% | Save percentage | 90.7%5th of 32 |
| 26th of 323–7 | Last 10 | 8–22nd of 32 |
| 21st of 3213–16 | Road vs home | 20–115th of 32 |
| 5th of 321504 | Opponent Elo | 15036th of 32 |
| 30th of 321436 | Elo rating | 15485th of 32 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  SJ |  BUF |
|---|---|---|
| Puck line | 40–21 | 38–26 |
| Last 10 | 6–4 | 7–3 |
| Favorite | 2–4 | 13–16 |
| Underdog | 38–17 | 25–10 |
| Overs–unders | 30–31 | 32–32 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 4–6 | 5–5 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
SJ 1–3 BUF in their last 4 meetings; the forecast called 2 of 4.