Utah Mammoth at Dallas Stars, NHL forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors DAL; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Mammoth- Nate SchmidtGoals1
- Alexander KerfootAssists1
- Nate SchmidtPoints1
Stars- Adam ErneGoals1
- Esa LindellAssists1
- Adam ErnePoints1
Scoring summary
- P319:56Adam Erne Goal (5) Snap Shot, assists: Arttu Hyry (1), Tyler Myers (8)6–3
- P319:20Lawson Crouse Goal (17) Snap Shot, assists: Nick Schmaltz (36)6–2
- P316:06Michael Carcone Goal (14) Snap Shot, assists: JJ Peterka (19)5–2
- P38:05Kailer Yamamoto Goal (10) Backhand, assists: Alexander Kerfoot (3)4–2
- P34:16Jack McBain Goal (7) Backhand, assists: none3–2
- P215:34Wyatt Johnston Goal (37) Tip-In, assists: Miro Heiskanen (48), Jason Robertson (44)2–2
- P27:20Nate Schmidt Goal (5) Snap Shot, assists: Logan Cooley (13)2–1
- P112:11Clayton Keller Goal (20) Snap Shot, assists: Mikhail Sergachev (34)1–1
- P16:17Sam Steel Goal (12) Snap Shot, assists: Jamie Benn (16), Esa Lindell (22)0–1
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- P112:11Clayton Keller Goal (20) Snap Shot, assists: Mikhail Sergachev (34)UTA 1 – 1 DAL · UTA 27% → 42% +15UTA 27% → 42%+15 pts
- P27:20Nate Schmidt Goal (5) Snap Shot, assists: Logan Cooley (13)UTA 2 – 1 DAL · UTA 43% → 63% +19UTA 43% → 63%+19 pts
- P215:34Wyatt Johnston Goal (37) Tip-In, assists: Miro Heiskanen (48), Jason Robertson (44)UTA 2 – 2 DAL · DAL 34% → 56% +22DAL 34% → 56%+22 pts
- P34:16Jack McBain Goal (7) Backhand, assists: noneUTA 3 – 2 DAL · UTA 45% → 72% +27UTA 45% → 72%+27 pts
- P38:05Kailer Yamamoto Goal (10) Backhand, assists: Alexander Kerfoot (3)UTA 4 – 2 DAL · UTA 76% → 94% +18UTA 76% → 94%+18 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Stars 59%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NHL favorites the forecast gave 55–60% have won 56.4% of 1,035 graded games.
- Market
- DAL 59%
- ML UTA +136 / DAL -162
- Pre-line forecast
- DAL 60%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- DAL 66%
- Ratings vs. market
- +7.0 pts
- DAL: Elo 66.4%, market 59.3%
- Fair odds
- DAL -146
- UTA +146 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- UTA 2.5 – 3.0 DAL
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 5.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | UTA | DAL | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1508 | 1571 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +35 | Worth 35 Elo in the NHL |
| Starting goalies | −14 | +6 | UTA: Vitek Vanecek: team allows 0.36 more goals than with its usual starter (≈37 weighted starts) · DAL: Casey DeSmith: team allows 0.14 fewer goals than with its usual starter (≈39 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | DAL +118 Elo | DAL 66.4% | |
| Market-implied ratings | DAL 58.0% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | DAL 59.7% | 20% Elo, 80% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | DAL 59.3% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Overtime and shootout losses count as losses in these records. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest. Shot share is a team's share of the shots on goal in its games. PDO adds shooting and save percentages: far from 100 tends to even out.
| UTA | Stat | DAL |
|---|---|---|
| 18th of 323.1 | Goals scored | 3.55th of 32 |
| 4th of 322.8 | Goals allowed | 2.72nd of 32 |
| 9th of 32+0.3 | Margin | +0.82nd of 32 |
| 9th of 3251.7% | Shot share | 49.4%18th of 32 |
| 20th of 3289.5% | Save percentage | 90.4%6th of 32 |
| 20th of 324–6 | Last 10 | 9–11st of 32 |
| 18th of 3216–19 | Road vs home | 22–114th of 32 |
| 22nd of 321498 | Opponent Elo | 149432nd of 32 |
| 13th of 321508 | Elo rating | 15712nd of 32 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  UTA |  DAL |
|---|---|---|
| Puck line | 30–37 | 28–38 |
| Last 10 | 3–7 | 5–5 |
| Favorite | 16–28 | 15–36 |
| Underdog | 14–9 | 13–2 |
| Overs–unders | 33–34 | 33–33 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 4–6 | 6–4 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
UTA 2–5 DAL in their last 7 meetings; the forecast called 5 of 7.
