Detroit Red Wings at Dallas Stars, NHL forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors DAL; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Red Wings- Lucas RaymondGoals1
- James van RiemsdykAssists1
- Lucas RaymondPoints1
Stars- Wyatt JohnstonGoals1
- Wyatt JohnstonAssists1
- Wyatt JohnstonPoints2
Scoring summary
- OT2:06Thomas Harley Goal (6) Snap Shot, assists: Wyatt Johnston (37)2–3
- P316:34Lucas Raymond Goal (21) Batted, assists: Emmitt Finnie (14), Alex DeBrincat (33)2–2
- P36:51Simon Edvinsson Goal (9) Snap Shot, assists: Moritz Seider (38), James van Riemsdyk (13)1–2
- P22:19Michael Bunting Goal (14) Snap Shot, assists: Justin Hryckowian (13), Jason Robertson (43)0–2
- P18:57Wyatt Johnston Goal (36) Tip-In, assists: Mavrik Bourque (18), Nils Lundkvist (6)0–1
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- P18:57Wyatt Johnston Goal (36) Tip-In, assists: Mavrik Bourque (18), Nils Lundkvist (6)DET 0 – 1 DAL · DAL 62% → 76% +14DAL 62% → 76%+14 pts
- P22:19Michael Bunting Goal (14) Snap Shot, assists: Justin Hryckowian (13), Jason Robertson (43)DET 0 – 2 DAL · DAL 77% → 88% +12DAL 77% → 88%+12 pts
- P36:51Simon Edvinsson Goal (9) Snap Shot, assists: Moritz Seider (38), James van Riemsdyk (13)DET 1 – 2 DAL · DET 4% → 17% +13DET 4% → 17%+13 pts
- P316:34Lucas Raymond Goal (21) Batted, assists: Emmitt Finnie (14), Alex DeBrincat (33)DET 2 – 2 DAL · DET 5% → 47% +41DET 5% → 47%+41 pts
- OT2:06Thomas Harley Goal (6) Snap Shot, assists: Wyatt Johnston (37)DET 2 – 3 DAL · DAL 53% → 96% +43DAL 53% → 96%+43 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Stars 63%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NHL favorites the forecast gave 60–65% have won 62.4% of 599 graded games.
- Market
- DAL 63%
- ML DET +160 / DAL -192
- Pre-line forecast
- DAL 59%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- DAL 64%
- Ratings vs. market
- +0.8 pts
- DAL: Elo 63.9%, market 63.1%
- Fair odds
- DAL -171
- DET +171 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- DET 2.4 – 3.1 DAL
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 5.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | DET | DAL | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1501 | 1570 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +35 | Worth 35 Elo in the NHL |
| Starting goalies | +4 | 0 | DET: John Gibson: team allows 0.11 fewer goals than with its usual starter (≈45 weighted starts) · DAL: Jake Oettinger: team allows 0.01 fewer goals than with its usual starter (≈49 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | DAL +99 Elo | DAL 63.9% | |
| Market-implied ratings | DAL 58.4% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | DAL 59.5% | 20% Elo, 80% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | DAL 63.1% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Overtime and shootout losses count as losses in these records. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest. Shot share is a team's share of the shots on goal in its games. PDO adds shooting and save percentages: far from 100 tends to even out.
| DET | Stat | DAL |
|---|---|---|
| 22nd of 322.9 | Goals scored | 3.55th of 32 |
| 10th of 323.0 | Goals allowed | 2.72nd of 32 |
| 17th of 32−0.1 | Margin | +0.82nd of 32 |
| 14th of 3250.4% | Shot share | 49.4%18th of 32 |
| 12th of 3290.0% | Save percentage | 90.4%6th of 32 |
| 21st of 324–6 | Last 10 | 9–11st of 32 |
| 9th of 3218–16 | Road vs home | 21–115th of 32 |
| 7th of 321502 | Opponent Elo | 149332nd of 32 |
| 15th of 321501 | Elo rating | 15702nd of 32 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  DET |  DAL |
|---|---|---|
| Puck line | 33–33 | 28–37 |
| Last 10 | 5–5 | 5–5 |
| Favorite | 7–22 | 15–35 |
| Underdog | 26–11 | 13–2 |
| Overs–unders | 31–35 | 33–32 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 3–7 | 7–3 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
DET 2–3 DAL in their last 5 meetings; the forecast called 2 of 5.