Dallas Stars at Colorado Avalanche, NHL forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors COL; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Stars- Jason RobertsonGoals1
- Nathan BastianAssists1
- Jason RobertsonPoints1
Avalanche- Cale MakarGoals1
- Nazem KadriAssists1
- Cale MakarPoints1
Scoring summary
- SO0:00Wyatt Johnston Goal Wrist Shot1–0
- P26:18Jason Robertson Goal (37) Wrist Shot, assists: Nathan Bastian (1), Thomas Harley (24)1–1
- P118:33Cale Makar Goal (20) Snap Shot, assists: Nazem Kadri (31), Nathan MacKinnon (66)0–1
Turning points
The 2 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- P118:33Cale Makar Goal (20) Snap Shot, assists: Nazem Kadri (31), Nathan MacKinnon (66)DAL 0 – 1 COL · COL 55% → 72% +16COL 55% → 72%+16 pts
- P26:18Jason Robertson Goal (37) Wrist Shot, assists: Nathan Bastian (1), Thomas Harley (24)DAL 1 – 1 COL · DAL 27% → 45% +18DAL 27% → 45%+18 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Avalanche 56%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NHL favorites the forecast gave 55–60% have won 56.4% of 1,035 graded games.
- Market
- COL 56%
- ML DAL +120 / COL -142
- Pre-line forecast
- COL 59%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- COL 58%
- Ratings vs. market
- +1.6 pts
- COL: Elo 58.0%, market 56.3%
- Fair odds
- COL -129
- DAL +129 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- DAL 3.1 – 3.4 COL
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 6.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | DAL | COL | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1565 | 1581 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +35 | Worth 35 Elo in the NHL |
| Starting goalies | 0 | +5 | DAL: Jake Oettinger: team allows 0.01 fewer goals than with its usual starter (≈49 weighted starts) · COL: Scott Wedgewood: team allows 0.12 fewer goals than with its usual starter (≈41 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | COL +56 Elo | COL 58.0% | |
| Market-implied ratings | COL 59.6% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | COL 59.3% | 20% Elo, 80% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | COL 56.3% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Overtime and shootout losses count as losses in these records. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest. Shot share is a team's share of the shots on goal in its games. PDO adds shooting and save percentages: far from 100 tends to even out.
| DAL | Stat | COL |
|---|---|---|
| 6th of 323.5 | Goals scored | 3.81st of 32 |
| 2nd of 322.7 | Goals allowed | 2.61st of 32 |
| 3rd of 32+0.8 | Margin | +1.21st of 32 |
| 17th of 3249.6% | Shot share | 56.1%2nd of 32 |
| 8th of 3290.3% | Save percentage | 91.1%1st of 32 |
| 2nd of 328–2 | Last 10 | 6–46th of 32 |
| 3rd of 3220–13 | Road vs home | 23–102nd of 32 |
| 32nd of 321494 | Opponent Elo | 149824th of 32 |
| 3rd of 321565 | Elo rating | 15811st of 32 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  DAL |  COL |
|---|---|---|
| Puck line | 28–39 | 34–32 |
| Last 10 | 5–5 | 4–6 |
| Favorite | 15–37 | 33–32 |
| Underdog | 13–2 | 1–0 |
| Overs–unders | 34–33 | 31–35 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 6–4 | 5–5 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
DAL 11–11 COL in their last 22 meetings; the forecast called 9 of 22.
- Mar 6COL 5 @ DAL 4Picked COL 53%Hit
- Oct 11DAL 5 @ COL 4Picked COL 57%Miss
- May 3COL 2 @ DAL 4PlayoffsPicked COL 60%Miss
- May 1DAL 4 @ COL 7PlayoffsPicked COL 64%Hit
- Apr 28COL 2 @ DAL 6PlayoffsPicked COL 56%Miss
- Apr 26DAL 0 @ COL 4PlayoffsPicked COL 64%Hit
- Apr 23DAL 2 @ COL 1PlayoffsPicked COL 63%Miss
- Apr 21COL 3 @ DAL 4PlayoffsPicked COL 55%Miss