Chicago Blackhawks at Minnesota Wild, NHL forecast
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Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors MIN; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Blackhawks- Ilya MikheyevGoals1
- Andrew MangiapaneAssists1
- Ilya MikheyevPoints1
Wild- Nico SturmGoals1
- Hunter HaightAssists1
- Nico SturmPoints1
Scoring summary
- P215:47Nico Sturm Goal (5) Snap Shot, assists: Hunter Haight (1), Brock Faber (33)2–1
- P211:47Connor Bedard Goal (28) Backhand, assists: none2–0
- P116:22Ilya Mikheyev Goal (13) Wrist Shot, assists: Andrew Mangiapane (8)1–0
Turning points
The 3 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- P116:22Ilya Mikheyev Goal (13) Wrist Shot, assists: Andrew Mangiapane (8)CHI 1 – 0 MIN · CHI 38% → 55% +17CHI 38% → 55%+17 pts
- P211:47Connor Bedard Goal (28) Backhand, assists: noneCHI 2 – 0 MIN · CHI 61% → 80% +18CHI 61% → 80%+18 pts
- P215:47Nico Sturm Goal (5) Snap Shot, assists: Hunter Haight (1), Brock Faber (33)CHI 2 – 1 MIN · MIN 18% → 36% +19MIN 18% → 36%+19 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Wild 64%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NHL favorites the forecast gave 60–65% have won 62.4% of 599 graded games.
- Market
- MIN 64%
- ML CHI +164 / MIN -198
- Pre-line forecast
- MIN 70%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- MIN 69%
- Ratings vs. market
- +5.2 pts
- MIN: Elo 68.9%, market 63.7%
- Fair odds
- MIN -175
- CHI +175 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- CHI 2.4 – 3.1 MIN
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 5.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | CHI | MIN | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1416 | 1532 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +35 | Worth 35 Elo in the NHL |
| Starting goalies | +5 | −8 | CHI: Spencer Knight: team allows 0.11 fewer goals than with its usual starter (≈40 weighted starts) · MIN: Jesper Wallstedt: team allows 0.20 more goals than with its usual starter (≈24 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | MIN +138 Elo | MIN 68.9% | |
| Market-implied ratings | MIN 70.4% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | MIN 70.1% | 20% Elo, 80% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | MIN 63.7% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Overtime and shootout losses count as losses in these records. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest. Shot share is a team's share of the shots on goal in its games. PDO adds shooting and save percentages: far from 100 tends to even out.
| CHI | Stat | MIN |
|---|---|---|
| 29th of 322.7 | Goals scored | 3.310th of 32 |
| 23rd of 323.2 | Goals allowed | 2.96th of 32 |
| 29th of 32−0.6 | Margin | +0.46th of 32 |
| 32nd of 3245.3% | Shot share | 49.4%17th of 32 |
| 16th of 3289.8% | Save percentage | 91.1%2nd of 32 |
| 27th of 323–7 | Last 10 | 4–621st of 32 |
| 28th of 3212–21 | Road vs home | 19–1717th of 32 |
| 11th of 321501 | Opponent Elo | 149727th of 32 |
| 32nd of 321416 | Elo rating | 15326th of 32 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  CHI |  MIN |
|---|---|---|
| Puck line | 43–24 | 35–34 |
| Last 10 | 6–4 | 4–6 |
| Favorite | 0–3 | 12–29 |
| Underdog | 43–21 | 23–5 |
| Overs–unders | 28–39 | 38–31 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 3–7 | 2–8 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
CHI 1–9 MIN in their last 10 meetings; the forecast called 7 of 10.