Buffalo Sabres at Vegas Golden Knights, NHL forecast
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Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors VGK; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Sabres- Josh NorrisGoals1
- Peyton KrebsAssists1
- Josh NorrisPoints1
Golden KnightsScoring summary
- P319:02Josh Norris Goal (10) Wrist Shot, assists: Peyton Krebs (22), Mattias Samuelsson (25)2–0
- P118:02Josh Doan Goal (22) Backhand, assists: none1–0
Turning points
The 2 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- P118:02Josh Doan Goal (22) Backhand, assists: noneBUF 1 – 0 VGK · BUF 46% → 63% +17BUF 46% → 63%+17 pts
- P319:02Josh Norris Goal (10) Wrist Shot, assists: Peyton Krebs (22), Mattias Samuelsson (25)BUF 2 – 0 VGK · BUF >99% → >99% +0BUF >99% → >99%+0 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Golden Knights 55%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NHL favorites the forecast gave 55–60% have won 56.4% of 1,035 graded games.
- Market
- VGK 55%
- ML BUF +114 / VGK -135
- Pre-line forecast
- VGK 52%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- VGK 51%
- Ratings vs. market
- −4.5 pts
- VGK: Elo 50.6%, market 55.1%
- Fair odds
- VGK -123
- BUF +123 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- BUF 3.1 – 3.4 VGK
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 6.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | BUF | VGK | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1549 | 1511 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +35 | Worth 35 Elo in the NHL |
| Starting goalies | −1 | +5 | BUF: Ukko-Pekka Luukkonen: team allows 0.03 more goals than with its usual starter (≈46 weighted starts) · VGK: Adin Hill: team allows 0.13 fewer goals than with its usual starter (≈45 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | VGK +4 Elo | VGK 50.6% | |
| Market-implied ratings | VGK 52.6% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | VGK 52.2% | 20% Elo, 80% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | VGK 55.1% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Overtime and shootout losses count as losses in these records. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest. Shot share is a team's share of the shots on goal in its games. PDO adds shooting and save percentages: far from 100 tends to even out.
| BUF | Stat | VGK |
|---|---|---|
| 5th of 323.5 | Goals scored | 3.313th of 32 |
| 8th of 323.0 | Goals allowed | 3.118th of 32 |
| 5th of 32+0.5 | Margin | +0.211th of 32 |
| 23rd of 3248.8% | Shot share | 53.6%4th of 32 |
| 5th of 3290.6% | Save percentage | 88.1%30th of 32 |
| 1st of 329–1 | Last 10 | 4–620th of 32 |
| 5th of 3219–14 | Road vs home | 16–1723rd of 32 |
| 9th of 321502 | Opponent Elo | 149629th of 32 |
| 5th of 321549 | Elo rating | 151113th of 32 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  BUF |  VGK |
|---|---|---|
| Puck line | 39–28 | 27–40 |
| Last 10 | 6–4 | 7–3 |
| Favorite | 14–18 | 15–38 |
| Underdog | 25–10 | 12–2 |
| Overs–unders | 33–34 | 36–31 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 3–7 | 3–7 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
BUF 4–1 VGK in their last 5 meetings; the forecast called 3 of 5.