Vegas Golden Knights at Nashville Predators, NHL forecast
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Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors NSH; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Golden Knights- Shea TheodoreGoals1
- Brett HowdenAssists1
- Shea TheodorePoints1
Predators- Steven StamkosGoals2
- Steven StamkosAssists1
- Steven StamkosPoints3
Scoring summary
- P214:53Ryan O'Reilly Goal (24) Deflected, assists: Steven Stamkos (22), Roman Josi (35)1–4
- P213:10Shea Theodore Goal (8) Wrist Shot, assists: Ivan Barbashev (29), Brett Howden (7)1–3
- P211:56Tyson Jost Goal (7) Wrist Shot, assists: Brady Skjei (20)0–3
- P21:24Steven Stamkos Goal (33) Snap Shot, assists: Filip Forsberg (29), Jonathan Marchessault (13)0–2
- P10:40Steven Stamkos Goal (32) Snap Shot, assists: Ryan O'Reilly (40)0–1
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- P10:40Steven Stamkos Goal (32) Snap Shot, assists: Ryan O'Reilly (40)VGK 0 – 1 NSH · NSH 42% → 56% +15NSH 42% → 56%+15 pts
- P21:24Steven Stamkos Goal (33) Snap Shot, assists: Filip Forsberg (29), Jonathan Marchessault (13)VGK 0 – 2 NSH · NSH 61% → 77% +16NSH 61% → 77%+16 pts
- P211:56Tyson Jost Goal (7) Wrist Shot, assists: Brady Skjei (20)VGK 0 – 3 NSH · NSH 82% → 93% +11NSH 82% → 93%+11 pts
- P213:10Shea Theodore Goal (8) Wrist Shot, assists: Ivan Barbashev (29), Brett Howden (7)VGK 1 – 3 NSH · VGK 7% → 17% +10VGK 7% → 17%+10 pts
- P214:53Ryan O'Reilly Goal (24) Deflected, assists: Steven Stamkos (22), Roman Josi (35)VGK 1 – 4 NSH · NSH 84% → 94% +10NSH 84% → 94%+10 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Golden Knights 58%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NHL favorites the forecast gave 55–60% have won 56.4% of 1,035 graded games.
- Market
- VGK 58%
- ML VGK -155 / NSH +130
- Pre-line forecast
- VGK 49%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- VGK 49%
- Ratings vs. market
- −9.2 pts
- VGK: Elo 49.1%, market 58.3%
- Fair odds
- VGK -140
- NSH +140 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- VGK 3.5 – 3.0 NSH
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 6.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | VGK | NSH | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1502 | 1468 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +35 | Worth 35 Elo in the NHL |
| Starting goalies | −5 | +1 | VGK: Akira Schmid: team allows 0.13 more goals than with its usual starter (≈30 weighted starts) · NSH: Justus Annunen: team allows 0.02 fewer goals than with its usual starter (≈35 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | NSH +7 Elo | NSH 50.9% | |
| Market-implied ratings | NSH 50.6% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | NSH 50.6% | 20% Elo, 80% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | VGK 58.3% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Overtime and shootout losses count as losses in these records. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest. Shot share is a team's share of the shots on goal in its games. PDO adds shooting and save percentages: far from 100 tends to even out.
| VGK | Stat | NSH |
|---|---|---|
| 14th of 323.2 | Goals scored | 3.020th of 32 |
| 18th of 323.1 | Goals allowed | 3.427th of 32 |
| 15th of 32+0.1 | Margin | −0.427th of 32 |
| 4th of 3253.7% | Shot share | 49.0%22nd of 32 |
| 30th of 3288.2% | Save percentage | 89.3%21st of 32 |
| 30th of 323–7 | Last 10 | 4–620th of 32 |
| 21st of 3215–19 | Road vs home | 17–1617th of 32 |
| 27th of 321497 | Opponent Elo | 15029th of 32 |
| 16th of 321502 | Elo rating | 146828th of 32 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  VGK |  NSH |
|---|---|---|
| Puck line | 27–42 | 37–31 |
| Last 10 | 5–5 | 7–3 |
| Favorite | 15–40 | 6–13 |
| Underdog | 12–2 | 31–18 |
| Overs–unders | 36–33 | 33–35 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 2–8 | 3–7 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
VGK 4–4 NSH in their last 8 meetings; the forecast called 5 of 8.