Seattle Kraken at Nashville Predators, NHL forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors NSH; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Kraken- Frederick GaudreauGoals1
- Kaapo KakkoAssists1
- Frederick GaudreauPoints1
Predators- Filip ForsbergGoals1
- Filip ForsbergAssists2
- Filip ForsbergPoints3
Scoring summary
- P318:10Filip Forsberg Goal (30) Wrist Shot, assists: none1–3
- P27:11Ryan O'Reilly Goal (23) Snap Shot, assists: Filip Forsberg (28), Steven Stamkos (21)1–2
- P118:40Freddy Gaudreau Goal (5) Tip-In, assists: Chandler Stephenson (27), Kaapo Kakko (18)1–1
- P16:14Ryan Ufko Goal (2) Slap Shot, assists: Brady Skjei (19), Filip Forsberg (27)0–1
Turning points
The 4 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- P16:14Ryan Ufko Goal (2) Slap Shot, assists: Brady Skjei (19), Filip Forsberg (27)SEA 0 – 1 NSH · NSH 52% → 67% +15NSH 52% → 67%+15 pts
- P118:40Freddy Gaudreau Goal (5) Tip-In, assists: Chandler Stephenson (27), Kaapo Kakko (18)SEA 1 – 1 NSH · SEA 31% → 48% +17SEA 31% → 48%+17 pts
- P27:11Ryan O'Reilly Goal (23) Snap Shot, assists: Filip Forsberg (28), Steven Stamkos (21)SEA 1 – 2 NSH · NSH 52% → 70% +19NSH 52% → 70%+19 pts
- P318:10Filip Forsberg Goal (30) Wrist Shot, assists: noneSEA 1 – 3 NSH · NSH 98% → >99% +2NSH 98% → >99%+2 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Predators 52%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NHL favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 51.2% of 926 graded games.
- Market
- NSH 52%
- ML SEA +100 / NSH -120
- Pre-line forecast
- NSH 58%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- NSH 53%
- Ratings vs. market
- +0.6 pts
- NSH: Elo 52.7%, market 52.2%
- Fair odds
- NSH -109
- SEA +109 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- SEA 3.2 – 3.3 NSH
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 6.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | SEA | NSH | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1476 | 1464 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +35 | Worth 35 Elo in the NHL |
| Starting goalies | +2 | −2 | SEA: Joey Daccord: team allows 0.06 fewer goals than with its usual starter (≈47 weighted starts) · NSH: Justus Annunen: team allows 0.05 more goals than with its usual starter (≈34 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | NSH +19 Elo | NSH 52.7% | |
| Market-implied ratings | NSH 59.6% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | NSH 58.3% | 20% Elo, 80% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | NSH 52.2% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Overtime and shootout losses count as losses in these records. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest. Shot share is a team's share of the shots on goal in its games. PDO adds shooting and save percentages: far from 100 tends to even out.
| SEA | Stat | NSH |
|---|---|---|
| 24th of 322.9 | Goals scored | 3.020th of 32 |
| 13th of 323.1 | Goals allowed | 3.427th of 32 |
| 19th of 32−0.2 | Margin | −0.428th of 32 |
| 28th of 3246.5% | Shot share | 48.9%22nd of 32 |
| 6th of 3290.5% | Save percentage | 89.3%21st of 32 |
| 21st of 324–6 | Last 10 | 4–621st of 32 |
| 19th of 3214–17 | Road vs home | 16–1621st of 32 |
| 30th of 321495 | Opponent Elo | 15036th of 32 |
| 24th of 321476 | Elo rating | 146428th of 32 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  SEA |  NSH |
|---|---|---|
| Puck line | 42–25 | 36–31 |
| Last 10 | 4–6 | 7–3 |
| Favorite | 5–6 | 5–13 |
| Underdog | 37–19 | 31–18 |
| Overs–unders | 28–39 | 33–34 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 5–5 | 3–7 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
SEA 4–4 NSH in their last 8 meetings; the forecast called 3 of 8.