Tampa Bay Lightning at Seattle Kraken, NHL forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors SEA; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Lightning- Nikita KucherovGoals3
- Brandon HagelAssists3
- Nikita KucherovPoints5
Kraken- Jared McCannGoals1
- Philipp GrubauerAssists1
- Jared McCannPoints1
Scoring summary
- P317:16Nikita Kucherov Goal (37) Wrist Shot, assists: Anthony Cirelli (27)6–2
- P316:54Brandon Hagel Goal (31) Wrist Shot, assists: Gage Goncalves (15), Nikita Kucherov (74)5–2
- P34:35Anthony Cirelli Goal (16) Snap Shot, assists: Nikita Kucherov (73), Brandon Hagel (32)4–2
- P29:46Jared McCann Goal (18) Wrist Shot, assists: Jordan Eberle (27), Philipp Grubauer (2)3–2
- P21:07Bobby McMann Goal (23) Wrist Shot, assists: Matty Beniers (26)3–1
- P20:57Nikita Kucherov Goal (36) Wrist Shot, assists: Anthony Cirelli (26), Brandon Hagel (31)3–0
- P118:49Nikita Kucherov Goal (35) Wrist Shot, assists: Brandon Hagel (30)2–0
- P15:45Gage Goncalves Goal (11) Tip-In, assists: Brayden Point (28), Jake Guentzel (41)1–0
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- P15:45Gage Goncalves Goal (11) Tip-In, assists: Brayden Point (28), Jake Guentzel (41)TB 1 – 0 SEA · TB 62% → 75% +14TB 62% → 75%+14 pts
- P118:49Nikita Kucherov Goal (35) Wrist Shot, assists: Brandon Hagel (30)TB 2 – 0 SEA · TB 76% → 87% +12TB 76% → 87%+12 pts
- P20:57Nikita Kucherov Goal (36) Wrist Shot, assists: Anthony Cirelli (26), Brandon Hagel (31)TB 3 – 0 SEA · TB 88% → 95% +7TB 88% → 95%+7 pts
- P29:46Jared McCann Goal (18) Wrist Shot, assists: Jordan Eberle (27), Philipp Grubauer (2)TB 3 – 2 SEA · SEA 11% → 23% +13SEA 11% → 23%+13 pts
- P34:35Anthony Cirelli Goal (16) Snap Shot, assists: Nikita Kucherov (73), Brandon Hagel (32)TB 4 – 2 SEA · TB 81% → 94% +13TB 81% → 94%+13 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Lightning 62%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NHL favorites the forecast gave 60–65% have won 62.4% of 599 graded games.
- Market
- TB 62%
- ML TB -185 / SEA +154
- Pre-line forecast
- TB 61%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- TB 58%
- Ratings vs. market
- −4.2 pts
- TB: Elo 58.0%, market 62.2%
- Fair odds
- TB -165
- SEA +165 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- TB 3.6 – 2.9 SEA
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 6.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | TB | SEA | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1564 | 1480 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +35 | Worth 35 Elo in the NHL |
| Starting goalies | +3 | −4 | TB: Andrei Vasilevskiy: team allows 0.08 fewer goals than with its usual starter (≈48 weighted starts) · SEA: Philipp Grubauer: team allows 0.09 more goals than with its usual starter (≈40 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | TB +56 Elo | TB 58.0% | |
| Market-implied ratings | TB 61.8% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | TB 61.1% | 20% Elo, 80% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | TB 62.2% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Overtime and shootout losses count as losses in these records. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest. Shot share is a team's share of the shots on goal in its games. PDO adds shooting and save percentages: far from 100 tends to even out.
| TB | Stat | SEA |
|---|---|---|
| 2nd of 323.6 | Goals scored | 2.923rd of 32 |
| 3rd of 322.8 | Goals allowed | 3.012th of 32 |
| 3rd of 32+0.8 | Margin | −0.118th of 32 |
| 11th of 3250.9% | Shot share | 46.5%28th of 32 |
| 7th of 3290.4% | Save percentage | 90.7%4th of 32 |
| 28th of 323–7 | Last 10 | 4–620th of 32 |
| 2nd of 3220–13 | Road vs home | 17–1822nd of 32 |
| 12th of 321502 | Opponent Elo | 149432nd of 32 |
| 3rd of 321564 | Elo rating | 148022nd of 32 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  TB |  SEA |
|---|---|---|
| Puck line | 31–34 | 42–24 |
| Last 10 | 4–6 | 4–6 |
| Favorite | 20–34 | 5–6 |
| Underdog | 11–0 | 37–18 |
| Overs–unders | 33–32 | 27–39 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 5–5 | 4–6 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
TB 3–1 SEA in their last 4 meetings; the forecast called 2 of 4.