Seattle Kraken at Vancouver Canucks, NHL forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors VAN; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Kraken- Bobby McMannGoals2
- Jordan EberleAssists3
- Bobby McMannPoints3
Canucks- Marco RossiGoals1
- Brock BoeserAssists1
- Evander KanePoints1
Scoring summary
- P319:40Marco Rossi Goal (8) Wrist Shot, assists: Brock Boeser (16)5–2
- P39:58Matty Beniers Goal (18) Wrist Shot, assists: Jordan Eberle (25), Bobby McMann (14)5–1
- P34:14Bobby McMann Goal (21) Tip-In, assists: Jordan Eberle (24), Matty Beniers (25)4–1
- P25:06Jamie Oleksiak Goal (4) Wrist Shot, assists: Matty Beniers (24), Brandon Montour (18)3–1
- P119:10Bobby McMann Goal (20) Wrist Shot, assists: Eeli Tolvanen (21), Shane Wright (14)2–1
- P111:42Evander Kane Goal (12) Backhand, assists: Drew O'Connor (10), Zeev Buium (17)1–1
- P14:12Jared McCann Goal (17) Wrist Shot, assists: Brandon Montour (17), Jordan Eberle (23)1–0
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- P14:12Jared McCann Goal (17) Wrist Shot, assists: Brandon Montour (17), Jordan Eberle (23)SEA 1 – 0 VAN · SEA 56% → 70% +14SEA 56% → 70%+14 pts
- P111:42Evander Kane Goal (12) Backhand, assists: Drew O'Connor (10), Zeev Buium (17)SEA 1 – 1 VAN · VAN 29% → 44% +15VAN 29% → 44%+15 pts
- P119:10Bobby McMann Goal (20) Wrist Shot, assists: Eeli Tolvanen (21), Shane Wright (14)SEA 2 – 1 VAN · SEA 55% → 72% +16SEA 55% → 72%+16 pts
- P25:06Jamie Oleksiak Goal (4) Wrist Shot, assists: Matty Beniers (24), Brandon Montour (18)SEA 3 – 1 VAN · SEA 73% → 86% +13SEA 73% → 86%+13 pts
- P34:14Bobby McMann Goal (21) Tip-In, assists: Jordan Eberle (24), Matty Beniers (25)SEA 4 – 1 VAN · SEA 93% → 99% +5SEA 93% → 99%+5 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Kraken 56%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NHL favorites the forecast gave 55–60% have won 56.4% of 1,035 graded games.
- Market
- SEA 56%
- ML SEA -142 / VAN +120
- Pre-line forecast
- SEA 56%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- SEA 52%
- Ratings vs. market
- −4.7 pts
- SEA: Elo 51.6%, market 56.3%
- Fair odds
- SEA -129
- VAN +129 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- SEA 3.4 – 3.1 VAN
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 6.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | SEA | VAN | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1470 | 1416 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +35 | Worth 35 Elo in the NHL |
| Starting goalies | −5 | +3 | SEA: Philipp Grubauer: team allows 0.13 more goals than with its usual starter (≈40 weighted starts) · VAN: Nikita Tolopilo: team allows 0.06 fewer goals than with its usual starter (≈11 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | SEA +11 Elo | SEA 51.6% | |
| Market-implied ratings | SEA 56.8% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | SEA 55.8% | 20% Elo, 80% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | SEA 56.3% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Overtime and shootout losses count as losses in these records. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest. Shot share is a team's share of the shots on goal in its games. PDO adds shooting and save percentages: far from 100 tends to even out.
| SEA | Stat | VAN |
|---|---|---|
| 26th of 322.8 | Goals scored | 2.631st of 32 |
| 13th of 323.0 | Goals allowed | 3.732nd of 32 |
| 21st of 32−0.2 | Margin | −1.132nd of 32 |
| 28th of 3246.4% | Shot share | 46.9%27th of 32 |
| 5th of 3290.6% | Save percentage | 88.4%29th of 32 |
| 26th of 323–7 | Last 10 | 2–831st of 32 |
| 22nd of 3213–17 | Road vs home | 7–2532nd of 32 |
| 31st of 321495 | Opponent Elo | 150019th of 32 |
| 26th of 321470 | Elo rating | 141632nd of 32 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  SEA |  VAN |
|---|---|---|
| Puck line | 40–24 | 32–33 |
| Last 10 | 3–7 | 4–6 |
| Favorite | 4–6 | 1–9 |
| Underdog | 36–18 | 31–24 |
| Overs–unders | 25–39 | 36–29 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 3–7 | 6–4 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
SEA 7–3 VAN in their last 10 meetings; the forecast called 4 of 10.