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Nashville Predators at Vancouver Canucks, NHL forecast

Final/SOESPN+, FanDuel SN South

Away

Predators

29-27-9

3–4

at

Home

Canucks

20-37-8

NSH 60%VAN 40%

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Rogers Arena · ESPN+, FanDuel SN South

Win probability

Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors VAN; hover for each play.

VAN favored NSH favored6 scoring plays
P1P2P3VAN50%NSH

Game center

From the ESPN box score.

Top performers

Predators
Canucks

Scoring summary

  • SO0:00Jake DeBrusk Goal Wrist Shot0–1
  • P318:59Filip Hronek Goal (7) Snap Shot, assists: Brock Boeser (15), Marco Rossi (14)3–3
  • P315:55Marco Rossi Goal (7) Wrist Shot, assists: Liam Ohgren (6)3–2
  • P214:06Matthew Wood Goal (14) Snap Shot, assists: none3–1
  • P25:20Tyson Jost Goal (6) Wrist Shot, assists: Roman Josi (33), Ryan Ufko (2)2–1
  • P118:28Tyson Jost Goal (5) Wrist Shot, assists: Justin Barron (6), Fedor Svechkov (10)1–1
  • P18:40Brock Boeser Goal (16) Tip-In, assists: Marco Rossi (13), Filip Hronek (31)0–1

Turning points

The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.

  1. P18:40Brock Boeser Goal (16) Tip-In, assists: Marco Rossi (13), Filip Hronek (31)NSH 0 – 1 VAN · VAN 40% → 56% +16
  2. P118:28Tyson Jost Goal (5) Wrist Shot, assists: Justin Barron (6), Fedor Svechkov (10)NSH 1 – 1 VAN · NSH 41% → 59% +17
  3. P25:20Tyson Jost Goal (6) Wrist Shot, assists: Roman Josi (33), Ryan Ufko (2)NSH 2 – 1 VAN · NSH 58% → 75% +17
  4. P214:06Matthew Wood Goal (14) Snap Shot, assists: noneNSH 3 – 1 VAN · NSH 77% → 90% +13
  5. P318:59Filip Hronek Goal (7) Snap Shot, assists: Brock Boeser (15), Marco Rossi (14)NSH 3 – 3 VAN · VAN <1% → 49% +48

The pick

Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.

Predators 60%

LeanMiss
NSH 60%VAN 40%

Forecast Elo ratings alone

How often that comes true: NHL favorites the forecast gave 60–65% have won 62.4% of 599 graded games.

Market
NSH 60%
ML NSH -170 / VAN +142
Pre-line forecast
NSH 56%
Elo + market-implied
Elo ratings
NSH 52%
Ratings vs. market
−7.9 pts
NSH: Elo 52.5%, market 60.4%
Fair odds
NSH -152
VAN +152 · the forecast as odds, no margin
Pregame projection
NSH 3.5 – 3.0 VAN
Margin from the forecast, posted total 6.5

How the number is built

Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.

FactorNSHVANWhy
Team rating14661413Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average
Home field—+35Worth 35 Elo in the NHL
Starting goalies+1+2NSH: Juuse Saros: team allows 0.03 fewer goals than with its usual starter (≈48 weighted starts) · VAN: Nikita Tolopilo: team allows 0.05 fewer goals than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts)
Elo ratingsNSH +17 EloNSH 52.5%
Market-implied ratingsNSH 56.6%Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context
Pre-line forecastNSH 55.8%20% Elo, 80% market-implied (log-odds blend)
ForecastNSH 60.4%Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate

Tale of the tape

This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Overtime and shootout losses count as losses in these records. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest. Shot share is a team's share of the shots on goal in its games. PDO adds shooting and save percentages: far from 100 tends to even out.

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Nashville Predators and Vancouver Canucks compared, with each team's league rank
NSHStatVAN
20th of 323.0Goals scored2.631st of 32
27th of 323.4Goals allowed3.732nd of 32
28th of 32−0.4Margin−1.132nd of 32
19th of 3249.2%Shot share46.8%27th of 32
22nd of 3289.1%Save percentage88.5%29th of 32
17th of 324–6Last 101–932nd of 32
24th of 3212–18Road vs home6–2532nd of 32
4th of 321505Opponent Elo150016th of 32
28th of 321466Elo rating141332nd of 32

Rating history

Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.

PredatorsCanucks
13501400145015001550league averageNovFebMayAugNov

Recent form

Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.

Against the line

How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.

This seasonNSHVAN
Puck line35–2931–33
Last 107–34–6
Favorite5–121–9
Underdog30–1730–24
Overs–unders31–3335–29
Overs–unders, last 103–75–5

Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.

Head to head

NSH 5–9 VAN in their last 14 meetings; the forecast called 5 of 14.