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Ottawa Senators at Vancouver Canucks, NHL forecast

FinalESPN+

Away

Senators

32-22-9

2–0

at

Home

Canucks

19-37-8

OTT 67%VAN 33%

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Rogers Arena · ESPN+

Win probability

Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors VAN; hover for each play.

VAN favored OTT favored2 scoring plays
P1P2P3VAN50%OTT

Game center

From the ESPN box score.

Top performers

Senators
Canucks

    Scoring summary

    • P318:40Brady Tkachuk Goal (17) Wrist Shot, assists: Tim Stützle (38), Thomas Chabot (22)2–0
    • P210:11Ridly Greig Goal (10) Wrist Shot, assists: Shane Pinto (17), Artem Zub (18)1–0

    Turning points

    The 2 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.

    1. P210:11Ridly Greig Goal (10) Wrist Shot, assists: Shane Pinto (17), Artem Zub (18)OTT 1 – 0 VAN · OTT 62% → 80% +17
    2. P318:40Brady Tkachuk Goal (17) Wrist Shot, assists: Tim Stützle (38), Thomas Chabot (22)OTT 2 – 0 VAN · OTT >99% → >99% +1

    The pick

    Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.

    Senators 67%

    SolidHit
    OTT 67%VAN 33%

    Forecast Elo ratings alone

    How often that comes true: NHL favorites the forecast gave 65–70% have won 67.6% of 306 graded games.

    Market
    OTT 67%
    ML OTT -230 / VAN +190
    Pre-line forecast
    OTT 64%
    Elo + market-implied
    Elo ratings
    OTT 60%
    Ratings vs. market
    −6.7 pts
    OTT: Elo 60.2%, market 66.9%
    Fair odds
    OTT -202
    VAN +202 · the forecast as odds, no margin
    Pregame projection
    OTT 3.7 – 2.8 VAN
    Margin from the forecast, posted total 6.5

    How the number is built

    Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.

    FactorOTTVANWhy
    Team rating15221416Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average
    Home field—+35Worth 35 Elo in the NHL
    Starting goalies−8−9OTT: James Reimer: team allows 0.19 more goals than with its usual starter (≈31 weighted starts) · VAN: Kevin Lankinen: team allows 0.23 more goals than with its usual starter (≈43 weighted starts)
    Elo ratingsOTT +72 EloOTT 60.2%
    Market-implied ratingsOTT 65.4%Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context
    Pre-line forecastOTT 64.4%20% Elo, 80% market-implied (log-odds blend)
    ForecastOTT 66.9%Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate

    Tale of the tape

    This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Overtime and shootout losses count as losses in these records. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest. Shot share is a team's share of the shots on goal in its games. PDO adds shooting and save percentages: far from 100 tends to even out.

    Try another venue →
    Ottawa Senators and Vancouver Canucks compared, with each team's league rank
    OTTStatVAN
    8th of 323.4Goals scored2.630th of 32
    20th of 323.2Goals allowed3.732nd of 32
    9th of 32+0.2Margin−1.132nd of 32
    3rd of 3254.1%Shot share46.9%27th of 32
    32nd of 3287.4%Save percentage88.4%29th of 32
    4th of 327–3Last 102–832nd of 32
    12th of 3217–16Road vs home6–2432nd of 32
    16th of 321500Opponent Elo150018th of 32
    8th of 321522Elo rating141632nd of 32

    Rating history

    Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.

    SenatorsCanucks
    13501400145015001550league averageNovFebMayAugNov

    Recent form

    Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.

    Against the line

    How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.

    This seasonOTTVAN
    Puck line28–3431–32
    Last 107–35–5
    Favorite14–291–9
    Underdog14–530–23
    Overs–unders36–2635–28
    Overs–unders, last 105–55–5

    Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.

    Head to head

    OTT 2–3 VAN in their last 5 meetings; the forecast called 2 of 5.