Florida Panthers at Seattle Kraken, NHL forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors SEA; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Panthers- Eetu LuostarinenGoals1
- Gustav ForslingAssists1
- Vinnie HinostrozaPoints1
Kraken- Kaapo KakkoGoals1
- Kaapo KakkoAssists2
- Kaapo KakkoPoints3
Scoring summary
- P319:58Eetu Luostarinen Goal (8) Backhand, assists: Gustav Forsling (21), Mackie Samoskevich (17)2–6
- P314:37Jamie Oleksiak Goal (5) Wrist Shot, assists: Bobby McMann (15), Jordan Eberle (26)1–6
- P310:07Bobby McMann Goal (22) Wrist Shot, assists: Kaapo Kakko (17), Eeli Tolvanen (22)1–5
- P23:20Kaapo Kakko Goal (10) Wrist Shot, assists: Vince Dunn (30), Berkly Catton (7)1–4
- P118:24Ryan Winterton Goal (4) Batted, assists: Ben Meyers (8), Brandon Montour (19)1–3
- P112:07Vinnie Hinostroza Goal (5) Wrist Shot, assists: Luke Kunin (3), Jesper Boqvist (7)1–2
- P111:52Berkly Catton Goal (6) Wrist Shot, assists: Kaapo Kakko (16), Jamie Oleksiak (8)0–2
- P15:28Ben Meyers Goal (7) Deflected, assists: Ryan Winterton (14), Freddy Gaudreau (15)0–1
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- P15:28Ben Meyers Goal (7) Deflected, assists: Ryan Winterton (14), Freddy Gaudreau (15)FLA 0 – 1 SEA · SEA 46% → 61% +15SEA 46% → 61%+15 pts
- P111:52Berkly Catton Goal (6) Wrist Shot, assists: Kaapo Kakko (16), Jamie Oleksiak (8)FLA 0 – 2 SEA · SEA 62% → 76% +14SEA 62% → 76%+14 pts
- P112:07Vinnie Hinostroza Goal (5) Wrist Shot, assists: Luke Kunin (3), Jesper Boqvist (7)FLA 1 – 2 SEA · FLA 24% → 38% +14FLA 24% → 38%+14 pts
- P118:24Ryan Winterton Goal (4) Batted, assists: Ben Meyers (8), Brandon Montour (19)FLA 1 – 3 SEA · SEA 64% → 78% +15SEA 64% → 78%+15 pts
- P23:20Kaapo Kakko Goal (10) Wrist Shot, assists: Vince Dunn (30), Berkly Catton (7)FLA 1 – 4 SEA · SEA 80% → 91% +10SEA 80% → 91%+10 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Panthers 54%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NHL favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 51.2% of 926 graded games.
- Market
- FLA 54%
- ML FLA -130 / SEA +110
- Pre-line forecast
- FLA 56%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- FLA 55%
- Ratings vs. market
- +0.7 pts
- FLA: Elo 55.0%, market 54.3%
- Fair odds
- FLA -119
- SEA +119 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- FLA 2.9 – 2.6 SEA
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 5.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | FLA | SEA | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1525 | 1474 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +35 | Worth 35 Elo in the NHL |
| Rest | — | −30 | SEA on the second night of a back-to-back |
| Starting goalies | −10 | +1 | FLA: Daniil Tarasov: team allows 0.24 more goals than with its usual starter (≈36 weighted starts) · SEA: Joey Daccord: team allows 0.03 fewer goals than with its usual starter (≈47 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | FLA +35 Elo | FLA 55.0% | |
| Market-implied ratings | FLA 56.2% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | FLA 55.9% | 20% Elo, 80% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | FLA 54.3% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Overtime and shootout losses count as losses in these records. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest. Shot share is a team's share of the shots on goal in its games. PDO adds shooting and save percentages: far from 100 tends to even out.
| FLA | Stat | SEA |
|---|---|---|
| 19th of 323.0 | Goals scored | 2.826th of 32 |
| 24th of 323.3 | Goals allowed | 3.012th of 32 |
| 23rd of 32−0.3 | Margin | −0.219th of 32 |
| 6th of 3252.2% | Shot share | 46.5%28th of 32 |
| 27th of 3288.7% | Save percentage | 90.6%4th of 32 |
| 12th of 325–5 | Last 10 | 4–619th of 32 |
| 13th of 3215–15 | Road vs home | 16–1825th of 32 |
| 2nd of 321505 | Opponent Elo | 149431st of 32 |
| 8th of 321525 | Elo rating | 147426th of 32 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  FLA |  SEA |
|---|---|---|
| Puck line | 22–43 | 41–24 |
| Last 10 | 3–7 | 4–6 |
| Favorite | 9–37 | 5–6 |
| Underdog | 13–6 | 36–18 |
| Overs–unders | 37–28 | 26–39 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 5–5 | 4–6 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
FLA 2–2 SEA in their last 4 meetings; the forecast called 3 of 4.