Nashville Predators at Edmonton Oilers, NHL forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors EDM; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Predators- Fedor SvechkovGoals1
- Nicolas HagueAssists1
- Fedor SvechkovPoints1
Oilers- Zach HymanGoals1
- Connor McDavidAssists3
- Connor McDavidPoints3
Scoring summary
- P318:53Zach Hyman Goal (28) Wrist Shot, assists: Connor McDavid (77)1–3
- P34:52Fedor Svechkov Goal (3) Wrist Shot, assists: Nicolas Hague (11), Justin Barron (7)1–2
- P22:32Matt Savoie Goal (11) Wrist Shot, assists: Connor McDavid (76), Mattias Ekholm (30)0–2
- P13:12Leon Draisaitl Goal (35) Wrist Shot, assists: Connor McDavid (75), Evan Bouchard (58)0–1
Turning points
The 4 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- P13:12Leon Draisaitl Goal (35) Wrist Shot, assists: Connor McDavid (75), Evan Bouchard (58)NSH 0 – 1 EDM · EDM 63% → 76% +13EDM 63% → 76%+13 pts
- P22:32Matt Savoie Goal (11) Wrist Shot, assists: Connor McDavid (76), Mattias Ekholm (30)NSH 0 – 2 EDM · EDM 77% → 88% +12EDM 77% → 88%+12 pts
- P34:52Fedor Svechkov Goal (3) Wrist Shot, assists: Nicolas Hague (11), Justin Barron (7)NSH 1 – 2 EDM · NSH 5% → 19% +13NSH 5% → 19%+13 pts
- P318:53Zach Hyman Goal (28) Wrist Shot, assists: Connor McDavid (77)NSH 1 – 3 EDM · EDM >99% → >99% +0EDM >99% → >99%+0 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Oilers 63%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NHL favorites the forecast gave 60–65% have won 62.4% of 599 graded games.
- Market
- EDM 63%
- ML NSH +160 / EDM -192
- Pre-line forecast
- EDM 62%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- EDM 64%
- Ratings vs. market
- +0.9 pts
- EDM: Elo 64.0%, market 63.1%
- Fair odds
- EDM -171
- NSH +171 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- NSH 2.9 – 3.6 EDM
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 6.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | NSH | EDM | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1464 | 1523 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +35 | Worth 35 Elo in the NHL |
| Starting goalies | −3 | +3 | NSH: Justus Annunen: team allows 0.07 more goals than with its usual starter (≈34 weighted starts) · EDM: Connor Ingram: team allows 0.07 fewer goals than with its usual starter (≈28 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | EDM +100 Elo | EDM 64.0% | |
| Market-implied ratings | EDM 61.8% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | EDM 62.2% | 20% Elo, 80% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | EDM 63.1% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Overtime and shootout losses count as losses in these records. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest. Shot share is a team's share of the shots on goal in its games. PDO adds shooting and save percentages: far from 100 tends to even out.
| NSH | Stat | EDM |
|---|---|---|
| 20th of 323.0 | Goals scored | 3.56th of 32 |
| 27th of 323.4 | Goals allowed | 3.428th of 32 |
| 28th of 32−0.4 | Margin | +0.116th of 32 |
| 21st of 3249.1% | Shot share | 52.4%5th of 32 |
| 21st of 3289.1% | Save percentage | 87.9%31st of 32 |
| 26th of 323–7 | Last 10 | 4–619th of 32 |
| 27th of 3212–19 | Road vs home | 16–1517th of 32 |
| 7th of 321503 | Opponent Elo | 149627th of 32 |
| 28th of 321464 | Elo rating | 15239th of 32 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  NSH |  EDM |
|---|---|---|
| Puck line | 35–30 | 25–42 |
| Last 10 | 7–3 | 3–7 |
| Favorite | 5–13 | 18–37 |
| Underdog | 30–17 | 7–5 |
| Overs–unders | 32–33 | 42–25 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 3–7 | 8–2 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
NSH 2–6 EDM in their last 8 meetings; the forecast called 4 of 8.