Edmonton Oilers at St. Louis Blues, NHL forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors STL; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Oilers- Kasperi KapanenGoals1
- Leon DraisaitlAssists1
- Kasperi KapanenPoints1
Blues- Cam FowlerGoals1
- Cam FowlerAssists1
- Cam FowlerPoints2
Scoring summary
- OT4:51Robert Thomas Goal (16) Wrist Shot, assists: Cam Fowler (23), Jordan Kyrou (20)2–3
- P316:14Cam Fowler Goal (2) Wrist Shot, assists: Oskar Sundqvist (11)2–2
- P312:22Pius Suter Goal (10) Wrist Shot, assists: Jonatan Berggren (10)2–1
- P39:56Connor McDavid Goal (37) Wrist Shot, assists: Matt Savoie (16), Connor Ingram (2)2–0
- P215:41Kasperi Kapanen Goal (7) Wrist Shot, assists: Leon Draisaitl (62), Vasily Podkolzin (15)1–0
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- P215:41Kasperi Kapanen Goal (7) Wrist Shot, assists: Leon Draisaitl (62), Vasily Podkolzin (15)EDM 1 – 0 STL · EDM 54% → 75% +21EDM 54% → 75%+21 pts
- P39:56Connor McDavid Goal (37) Wrist Shot, assists: Matt Savoie (16), Connor Ingram (2)EDM 2 – 0 STL · EDM 83% → 97% +14EDM 83% → 97%+14 pts
- P312:22Pius Suter Goal (10) Wrist Shot, assists: Jonatan Berggren (10)EDM 2 – 1 STL · STL 2% → 14% +12STL 2% → 14%+12 pts
- P316:14Cam Fowler Goal (2) Wrist Shot, assists: Oskar Sundqvist (11)EDM 2 – 2 STL · STL 7% → 48% +42STL 7% → 48%+42 pts
- OT4:51Robert Thomas Goal (16) Wrist Shot, assists: Cam Fowler (23), Jordan Kyrou (20)EDM 2 – 3 STL · STL 50% → >99% +50STL 50% → >99%+50 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Oilers 56%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NHL favorites the forecast gave 55–60% have won 56.4% of 1,035 graded games.
- Market
- EDM 56%
- ML EDM -142 / STL +120
- Pre-line forecast
- EDM 58%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- EDM 51%
- Ratings vs. market
- −5.0 pts
- EDM: Elo 51.3%, market 56.3%
- Fair odds
- EDM -129
- STL +129 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- EDM 3.4 – 3.1 STL
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 6.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | EDM | STL | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1526 | 1477 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +35 | Worth 35 Elo in the NHL |
| Rest | −30 | −30 | STL and EDM on the second night of a back-to-back |
| Starting goalies | +3 | +7 | EDM: Connor Ingram: team allows 0.07 fewer goals than with its usual starter (≈27 weighted starts) · STL: Joel Hofer: team allows 0.18 fewer goals than with its usual starter (≈41 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | EDM +9 Elo | EDM 51.3% | |
| Market-implied ratings | EDM 59.1% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | EDM 57.5% | 20% Elo, 80% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | EDM 56.3% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Overtime and shootout losses count as losses in these records. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest. Shot share is a team's share of the shots on goal in its games. PDO adds shooting and save percentages: far from 100 tends to even out.
| EDM | Stat | STL |
|---|---|---|
| 5th of 323.5 | Goals scored | 2.628th of 32 |
| 28th of 323.5 | Goals allowed | 3.326th of 32 |
| 14th of 32+0.1 | Margin | −0.731st of 32 |
| 5th of 3252.2% | Shot share | 47.2%26th of 32 |
| 31st of 3287.9% | Save percentage | 88.8%23rd of 32 |
| 17th of 324–6 | Last 10 | 6–47th of 32 |
| 18th of 3216–19 | Road vs home | 14–1928th of 32 |
| 28th of 321496 | Opponent Elo | 150018th of 32 |
| 7th of 321526 | Elo rating | 147724th of 32 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  EDM |  STL |
|---|---|---|
| Puck line | 25–41 | 35–30 |
| Last 10 | 3–7 | 9–1 |
| Favorite | 18–36 | 2–19 |
| Underdog | 7–5 | 33–11 |
| Overs–unders | 42–24 | 32–33 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 9–1 | 4–6 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
EDM 5–3 STL in their last 8 meetings; the forecast called 7 of 8.