Nashville Predators at Winnipeg Jets, NHL forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors WPG; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Predators- Filip ForsbergGoals1
- Jonathan MarchessaultAssists2
- Filip ForsbergPoints2
Jets- Gabriel VilardiGoals1
- Kyle ConnorAssists3
- Kyle ConnorPoints3
Scoring summary
- SO0:00Ryan O'Reilly Goal Snap Shot1–0
- P318:59Jonathan Toews Goal (8) Snap Shot, assists: Mark Scheifele (52), Kyle Connor (47)3–3
- P314:01Matthew Wood Goal (15) Snap Shot, assists: Jonathan Marchessault (12), Filip Forsberg (26)3–2
- P210:48Filip Forsberg Goal (29) Slap Shot, assists: Jonathan Marchessault (11), Ryan Ufko (3)2–2
- P25:09Gabriel Vilardi Goal (26) Wrist Shot, assists: Cole Perfetti (17), Kyle Connor (46)1–2
- P119:20Josh Morrissey Goal (12) Wrist Shot, assists: Gabriel Vilardi (30), Kyle Connor (45)1–1
- P113:02Erik Haula Goal (11) Tip-In, assists: Roman Josi (34), Luke Evangelista (39)1–0
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- P119:20Josh Morrissey Goal (12) Wrist Shot, assists: Gabriel Vilardi (30), Kyle Connor (45)NSH 1 – 1 WPG · WPG 36% → 54% +17WPG 36% → 54%+17 pts
- P25:09Gabriel Vilardi Goal (26) Wrist Shot, assists: Cole Perfetti (17), Kyle Connor (46)NSH 1 – 2 WPG · WPG 53% → 71% +18WPG 53% → 71%+18 pts
- P210:48Filip Forsberg Goal (29) Slap Shot, assists: Jonathan Marchessault (11), Ryan Ufko (3)NSH 2 – 2 WPG · NSH 27% → 47% +20NSH 27% → 47%+20 pts
- P314:01Matthew Wood Goal (15) Snap Shot, assists: Jonathan Marchessault (12), Filip Forsberg (26)NSH 3 – 2 WPG · NSH 49% → 87% +38NSH 49% → 87%+38 pts
- P318:59Jonathan Toews Goal (8) Snap Shot, assists: Mark Scheifele (52), Kyle Connor (47)NSH 3 – 3 WPG · WPG <1% → 51% +50WPG <1% → 51%+50 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Jets 54%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NHL favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 51.2% of 926 graded games.
- Market
- WPG 54%
- ML NSH +110 / WPG -130
- Pre-line forecast
- WPG 55%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- WPG 61%
- Ratings vs. market
- +6.6 pts
- WPG: Elo 60.8%, market 54.3%
- Fair odds
- WPG -119
- NSH +119 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- NSH 2.6 – 2.9 WPG
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 5.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | NSH | WPG | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1461 | 1502 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +35 | Worth 35 Elo in the NHL |
| Starting goalies | +1 | +1 | NSH: Juuse Saros: team allows 0.02 fewer goals than with its usual starter (≈49 weighted starts) · WPG: Connor Hellebuyck: team allows 0.03 fewer goals than with its usual starter (≈49 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | WPG +77 Elo | WPG 60.8% | |
| Market-implied ratings | WPG 54.0% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | WPG 55.4% | 20% Elo, 80% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | WPG 54.3% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Overtime and shootout losses count as losses in these records. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest. Shot share is a team's share of the shots on goal in its games. PDO adds shooting and save percentages: far from 100 tends to even out.
| NSH | Stat | WPG |
|---|---|---|
| 20th of 323.0 | Goals scored | 2.825th of 32 |
| 27th of 323.4 | Goals allowed | 3.115th of 32 |
| 28th of 32−0.5 | Margin | −0.220th of 32 |
| 21st of 3249.1% | Shot share | 48.4%24th of 32 |
| 21st of 3289.2% | Save percentage | 89.8%17th of 32 |
| 27th of 323–7 | Last 10 | 6–46th of 32 |
| 26th of 3212–20 | Road vs home | 17–1822nd of 32 |
| 6th of 321503 | Opponent Elo | 149823rd of 32 |
| 28th of 321461 | Elo rating | 150217th of 32 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  NSH |  WPG |
|---|---|---|
| Puck line | 35–31 | 29–37 |
| Last 10 | 6–4 | 3–7 |
| Favorite | 5–13 | 11–30 |
| Underdog | 30–18 | 18–7 |
| Overs–unders | 32–34 | 34–32 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 2–8 | 2–8 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
NSH 4–6 WPG in their last 10 meetings; the forecast called 7 of 10.