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St. Louis Blues at Winnipeg Jets, NHL forecast

FinalFanDuel SN MW, NHL Net

Away

Blues

27-30-10

2–3

at

Home

Jets

28-28-10

STL 50%WPG 50%

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Canada Life Centre · FanDuel SN MW, NHL Net

Win probability

Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors WPG; hover for each play.

WPG favored STL favored5 scoring plays
P1P2P3WPG50%STL

Game center

From the ESPN box score.

Top performers

Blues
Jets

Scoring summary

  • P319:09Dylan Holloway Goal (14) Wrist Shot, assists: Logan Mailloux (3), Jimmy Snuggerud (20)2–3
  • P311:53Kyle Connor Goal (31) Snap Shot, assists: Morgan Barron (12), Haydn Fleury (1)1–3
  • P35:17Dalibor Dvorsky Goal (10) Tip-In, assists: Jonatan Berggren (11), Pius Suter (12)1–2
  • P17:51Mark Scheifele Goal (31) Backhand, assists: Josh Morrissey (34)0–2
  • P12:31Haydn Fleury Goal (1) Snap Shot, assists: Brad Lambert (1), Morgan Barron (11)0–1

Turning points

The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.

  1. P12:31Haydn Fleury Goal (1) Snap Shot, assists: Brad Lambert (1), Morgan Barron (11)STL 0 – 1 WPG · WPG 50% → 64% +15
  2. P17:51Mark Scheifele Goal (31) Backhand, assists: Josh Morrissey (34)STL 0 – 2 WPG · WPG 65% → 78% +13
  3. P35:17Dalibor Dvorsky Goal (10) Tip-In, assists: Jonatan Berggren (11), Pius Suter (12)STL 1 – 2 WPG · STL 7% → 23% +16
  4. P311:53Kyle Connor Goal (31) Snap Shot, assists: Morgan Barron (12), Haydn Fleury (1)STL 1 – 3 WPG · WPG 84% → 98% +14
  5. P319:09Dylan Holloway Goal (14) Wrist Shot, assists: Logan Mailloux (3), Jimmy Snuggerud (20)STL 2 – 3 WPG · STL <1% → <1% +0

The pick

Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.

Blues 50%

Toss-upMiss
STL 50%WPG 50%

Forecast Elo ratings alone

How often that comes true: NHL favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 51.2% of 926 graded games.

Market
STL 50%
ML STL -112 / WPG -108
Pre-line forecast
STL 47%
Elo + market-implied
Elo ratings
STL 47%
Ratings vs. market
−3.5 pts
STL: Elo 46.9%, market 50.4%
Fair odds
STL -102
WPG +102 · the forecast as odds, no margin
Pregame projection
STL 2.8 – 2.7 WPG
Margin from the forecast, posted total 5.5

How the number is built

Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.

FactorSTLWPGWhy
Team rating14801500Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average
Home field—+35Worth 35 Elo in the NHL
Rest—−30WPG on the second night of a back-to-back
Starting goalies−5−9STL: Jordan Binnington: team allows 0.13 more goals than with its usual starter (≈47 weighted starts) · WPG: Eric Comrie: team allows 0.23 more goals than with its usual starter (≈32 weighted starts)
Elo ratingsWPG +21 EloWPG 53.1%
Market-implied ratingsWPG 52.6%Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context
Pre-line forecastWPG 52.7%20% Elo, 80% market-implied (log-odds blend)
ForecastSTL 50.4%Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate

Tale of the tape

This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Overtime and shootout losses count as losses in these records. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest. Shot share is a team's share of the shots on goal in its games. PDO adds shooting and save percentages: far from 100 tends to even out.

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St. Louis Blues and Winnipeg Jets compared, with each team's league rank
STLStatWPG
29th of 322.7Goals scored2.825th of 32
25th of 323.3Goals allowed3.115th of 32
31st of 32−0.7Margin−0.221st of 32
26th of 3247.1%Shot share48.6%24th of 32
23rd of 3289.0%Save percentage89.7%17th of 32
3rd of 327–3Last 105–511th of 32
28th of 3212–20Road vs home16–1824th of 32
16th of 321500Opponent Elo149921st of 32
23rd of 321480Elo rating150016th of 32

Rating history

Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.

BluesJets
14001450150015501600league averageNovFebMayAugNov

Recent form

Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.

Against the line

How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.

This seasonSTLWPG
Puck line36–3029–36
Last 109–13–7
Favorite2–1911–29
Underdog34–1118–7
Overs–unders32–3434–31
Overs–unders, last 103–72–8

Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.

Head to head

STL 5–11 WPG in their last 16 meetings; the forecast called 11 of 16.