Winnipeg Jets at Pittsburgh Penguins, NHL forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors PIT; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Jets- Brad LambertGoals1
- Brad LambertAssists1
- Brad LambertPoints2
Penguins- Erik KarlssonGoals2
- Parker WotherspoonAssists2
- Erik KarlssonPoints2
Scoring summary
- SO0:00Rickard Rakell Goal Wrist Shot0–2
- SO0:00Sidney Crosby Goal Wrist Shot0–2
- P312:45Erik Karlsson Goal (11) Wrist Shot, assists: Bryan Rust (30), Sidney Crosby (34)4–4
- P38:36Brad Lambert Goal (2) Wrist Shot, assists: none4–3
- P34:04Neal Pionk Goal (3) Wrist Shot, assists: Jonathan Toews (15), Gustav Nyquist (11)3–3
- P215:22Erik Karlsson Goal (10) Wrist Shot, assists: Parker Wotherspoon (23), Egor Chinakhov (15)2–3
- P26:10Cole Koepke Goal (6) Backhand, assists: Adam Lowry (14), Dylan DeMelo (15)2–2
- P13:50Morgan Barron Goal (11) Wrist Shot, assists: Brad Lambert (3)1–2
- P12:02Rickard Rakell Goal (14) Wrist Shot, assists: Bryan Rust (29), Samuel Girard (10)0–2
- P11:06Egor Chinakhov Goal (15) Wrist Shot, assists: Evgeni Malkin (37), Parker Wotherspoon (22)0–1
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- P26:10Cole Koepke Goal (6) Backhand, assists: Adam Lowry (14), Dylan DeMelo (15)WPG 2 – 2 PIT · WPG 25% → 43% +18WPG 25% → 43%+18 pts
- P215:22Erik Karlsson Goal (10) Wrist Shot, assists: Parker Wotherspoon (23), Egor Chinakhov (15)WPG 2 – 3 PIT · PIT 56% → 76% +20PIT 56% → 76%+20 pts
- P34:04Neal Pionk Goal (3) Wrist Shot, assists: Jonathan Toews (15), Gustav Nyquist (11)WPG 3 – 3 PIT · WPG 20% → 45% +25WPG 20% → 45%+25 pts
- P38:36Brad Lambert Goal (2) Wrist Shot, assists: noneWPG 4 – 3 PIT · WPG 46% → 77% +31WPG 46% → 77%+31 pts
- P312:45Erik Karlsson Goal (11) Wrist Shot, assists: Bryan Rust (30), Sidney Crosby (34)WPG 4 – 4 PIT · PIT 17% → 53% +37PIT 17% → 53%+37 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Penguins 59%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NHL favorites the forecast gave 55–60% have won 56.4% of 1,035 graded games.
- Market
- PIT 59%
- ML WPG +136 / PIT -162
- Pre-line forecast
- PIT 57%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- PIT 57%
- Ratings vs. market
- −2.4 pts
- PIT: Elo 56.9%, market 59.3%
- Fair odds
- PIT -146
- WPG +146 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- WPG 3.0 – 3.5 PIT
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 6.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | WPG | PIT | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1494 | 1507 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +35 | Worth 35 Elo in the NHL |
| Starting goalies | −2 | −1 | WPG: Connor Hellebuyck: team allows 0.05 more goals than with its usual starter (≈49 weighted starts) · PIT: Arturs Silovs: team allows 0.04 more goals than with its usual starter (≈33 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | PIT +48 Elo | PIT 56.9% | |
| Market-implied ratings | PIT 56.8% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | PIT 56.8% | 20% Elo, 80% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | PIT 59.3% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Overtime and shootout losses count as losses in these records. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest. Shot share is a team's share of the shots on goal in its games. PDO adds shooting and save percentages: far from 100 tends to even out.
| WPG | Stat | PIT |
|---|---|---|
| 26th of 322.8 | Goals scored | 3.58th of 32 |
| 20th of 323.1 | Goals allowed | 3.114th of 32 |
| 21st of 32−0.3 | Margin | +0.47th of 32 |
| 24th of 3248.6% | Shot share | 51.5%8th of 32 |
| 19th of 3289.6% | Save percentage | 89.6%18th of 32 |
| 11th of 325–5 | Last 10 | 4–620th of 32 |
| 31st of 3211–21 | Road vs home | 15–1724th of 32 |
| 23rd of 321498 | Opponent Elo | 149825th of 32 |
| 19th of 321494 | Elo rating | 150714th of 32 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  WPG |  PIT |
|---|---|---|
| Puck line | 29–39 | 41–27 |
| Last 10 | 2–8 | 6–4 |
| Favorite | 11–31 | 10–19 |
| Underdog | 18–8 | 31–8 |
| Overs–unders | 36–32 | 37–31 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 3–7 | 7–3 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
WPG 4–1 PIT in their last 5 meetings; the forecast called 5 of 5.