Winnipeg Jets at Boston Bruins, NHL forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors BOS; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Jets- Jonathan ToewsGoals1
- Brad LambertAssists1
- Jonathan ToewsPoints1
Bruins- David PastrnakGoals1
- Casey MittelstadtAssists2
- David PastrnakPoints2
Scoring summary
- P318:18Jonathan Aspirot Goal (3) Wrist Shot, assists: Morgan Geekie (24), Lukas Reichel (4)1–6
- P315:52Fraser Minten Goal (16) Tip-In, assists: David Pastrnak (57), Andrew Peeke (9)1–5
- P35:38Jonathan Toews Goal (9) Tip-In, assists: Elias Salomonsson (3), Brad Lambert (2)1–4
- P33:15Pavel Zacha Goal (23) Wrist Shot, assists: Casey Mittelstadt (23), Viktor Arvidsson (22)0–4
- P218:16Viktor Arvidsson Goal (19) Wrist Shot, assists: Casey Mittelstadt (22), Pavel Zacha (28)0–3
- P26:23Lukas Reichel Goal (3) Wrist Shot, assists: none0–2
- P114:52David Pastrnak Goal (27) Wrist Shot, assists: none0–1
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- P114:52David Pastrnak Goal (27) Wrist Shot, assists: noneWPG 0 – 1 BOS · BOS 56% → 71% +16BOS 56% → 71%+16 pts
- P26:23Lukas Reichel Goal (3) Wrist Shot, assists: noneWPG 0 – 2 BOS · BOS 73% → 86% +14BOS 73% → 86%+14 pts
- P218:16Viktor Arvidsson Goal (19) Wrist Shot, assists: Casey Mittelstadt (22), Pavel Zacha (28)WPG 0 – 3 BOS · BOS 90% → 97% +7BOS 90% → 97%+7 pts
- P33:15Pavel Zacha Goal (23) Wrist Shot, assists: Casey Mittelstadt (23), Viktor Arvidsson (22)WPG 0 – 4 BOS · BOS 98% → >99% +1BOS 98% → >99%+1 pts
- P35:38Jonathan Toews Goal (9) Tip-In, assists: Elias Salomonsson (3), Brad Lambert (2)WPG 1 – 4 BOS · WPG <1% → 1% +1WPG <1% → 1%+1 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Bruins 56%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NHL favorites the forecast gave 55–60% have won 56.4% of 1,035 graded games.
- Market
- BOS 56%
- ML WPG +120 / BOS -142
- Pre-line forecast
- BOS 58%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- BOS 55%
- Ratings vs. market
- −1.1 pts
- BOS: Elo 55.2%, market 56.3%
- Fair odds
- BOS -129
- WPG +129 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- WPG 2.6 – 2.9 BOS
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 5.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | WPG | BOS | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1499 | 1495 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +35 | Worth 35 Elo in the NHL |
| Starting goalies | 0 | +6 | WPG: Connor Hellebuyck: team allows 0.01 fewer goals than with its usual starter (≈49 weighted starts) · BOS: Jeremy Swayman: team allows 0.14 fewer goals than with its usual starter (≈48 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | BOS +37 Elo | BOS 55.2% | |
| Market-implied ratings | BOS 59.2% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | BOS 58.4% | 20% Elo, 80% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | BOS 56.3% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Overtime and shootout losses count as losses in these records. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest. Shot share is a team's share of the shots on goal in its games. PDO adds shooting and save percentages: far from 100 tends to even out.
| WPG | Stat | BOS |
|---|---|---|
| 25th of 322.9 | Goals scored | 3.312th of 32 |
| 14th of 323.1 | Goals allowed | 3.121st of 32 |
| 21st of 32−0.2 | Margin | +0.112th of 32 |
| 24th of 3248.6% | Shot share | 47.7%25th of 32 |
| 17th of 3289.8% | Save percentage | 90.0%13th of 32 |
| 13th of 325–5 | Last 10 | 4–620th of 32 |
| 30th of 3211–20 | Road vs home | 25–101st of 32 |
| 24th of 321498 | Opponent Elo | 150017th of 32 |
| 18th of 321499 | Elo rating | 149519th of 32 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  WPG |  BOS |
|---|---|---|
| Puck line | 29–38 | 43–25 |
| Last 10 | 3–7 | 5–5 |
| Favorite | 11–31 | 10–13 |
| Underdog | 18–7 | 33–12 |
| Overs–unders | 35–32 | 36–32 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 3–7 | 3–7 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
WPG 3–2 BOS in their last 5 meetings; the forecast called 4 of 5.