Boston Bruins at Montreal Canadiens, NHL forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors MTL; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Bruins- Pavel ZachaGoals2
- Viktor ArvidssonAssists1
- Pavel ZachaPoints2
Canadiens- Nick SuzukiGoals1
- Lane HutsonAssists2
- Nick SuzukiPoints2
Scoring summary
- OT4:38Cole Caufield Goal (40) Tip-In, assists: Nick Suzuki (56), Lane Hutson (58)2–3
- P213:15Josh Anderson Goal (13) Tip-In, assists: Lane Hutson (57), Brendan Gallagher (15)2–2
- P25:41Pavel Zacha Goal (22) Tip-In, assists: Viktor Arvidsson (21), Casey Mittelstadt (21)2–1
- P110:31Nick Suzuki Goal (24) Backhand, assists: Juraj Slafkovský (32), Cole Caufield (28)1–1
- P12:22Pavel Zacha Goal (21) Backhand, assists: David Pastrnak (56), Charlie McAvoy (42)1–0
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- P12:22Pavel Zacha Goal (21) Backhand, assists: David Pastrnak (56), Charlie McAvoy (42)BOS 1 – 0 MTL · BOS 42% → 57% +15BOS 42% → 57%+15 pts
- P110:31Nick Suzuki Goal (24) Backhand, assists: Juraj Slafkovský (32), Cole Caufield (28)BOS 1 – 1 MTL · MTL 42% → 58% +16MTL 42% → 58%+16 pts
- P25:41Pavel Zacha Goal (22) Tip-In, assists: Viktor Arvidsson (21), Casey Mittelstadt (21)BOS 2 – 1 MTL · BOS 44% → 63% +19BOS 44% → 63%+19 pts
- P213:15Josh Anderson Goal (13) Tip-In, assists: Lane Hutson (57), Brendan Gallagher (15)BOS 2 – 2 MTL · MTL 34% → 56% +21MTL 34% → 56%+21 pts
- OT4:38Cole Caufield Goal (40) Tip-In, assists: Nick Suzuki (56), Lane Hutson (58)BOS 2 – 3 MTL · MTL 51% → >99% +49MTL 51% → >99%+49 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Canadiens 58%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NHL favorites the forecast gave 55–60% have won 56.4% of 1,035 graded games.
- Market
- MTL 58%
- ML BOS +130 / MTL -155
- Pre-line forecast
- MTL 61%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- MTL 60%
- Ratings vs. market
- +1.9 pts
- MTL: Elo 60.2%, market 58.3%
- Fair odds
- MTL -140
- BOS +140 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- BOS 3.0 – 3.5 MTL
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 6.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | BOS | MTL | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1497 | 1510 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +35 | Worth 35 Elo in the NHL |
| Rest | −30 | — | BOS on the second night of a back-to-back |
| Starting goalies | +6 | 0 | BOS: Jeremy Swayman: team allows 0.16 fewer goals than with its usual starter (≈48 weighted starts) · MTL: Jakub Dobes: team allows 0.01 fewer goals than with its usual starter (≈31 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | MTL +72 Elo | MTL 60.2% | |
| Market-implied ratings | MTL 61.3% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | MTL 61.1% | 20% Elo, 80% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | MTL 58.3% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Overtime and shootout losses count as losses in these records. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest. Shot share is a team's share of the shots on goal in its games. PDO adds shooting and save percentages: far from 100 tends to even out.
| BOS | Stat | MTL |
|---|---|---|
| 12th of 323.3 | Goals scored | 3.54th of 32 |
| 20th of 323.1 | Goals allowed | 3.325th of 32 |
| 12th of 32+0.2 | Margin | +0.210th of 32 |
| 25th of 3247.7% | Shot share | 49.0%22nd of 32 |
| 13th of 3290.0% | Save percentage | 88.6%27th of 32 |
| 13th of 325–5 | Last 10 | 5–513th of 32 |
| 26th of 3212–19 | Road vs home | 18–1512th of 32 |
| 17th of 321500 | Opponent Elo | 150211th of 32 |
| 18th of 321497 | Elo rating | 151013th of 32 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  BOS |  MTL |
|---|---|---|
| Puck line | 42–25 | 37–29 |
| Last 10 | 5–5 | 5–5 |
| Favorite | 10–13 | 8–25 |
| Underdog | 32–12 | 29–4 |
| Overs–unders | 36–31 | 41–25 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 3–7 | 6–4 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
BOS 7–3 MTL in their last 10 meetings; the forecast called 7 of 10.