San Jose Sharks at Montreal Canadiens, NHL forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors MTL; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Sharks- Macklin CelebriniGoals2
- Collin GrafAssists2
- Macklin CelebriniPoints3
Canadiens- Nick SuzukiGoals1
- Noah DobsonAssists2
- Noah DobsonPoints2
Scoring summary
- P317:57Macklin Celebrini Goal (35) Snap Shot, assists: Collin Graf (21), Barclay Goodrow (6)4–2
- P217:38Nick Suzuki Goal (22) Snap Shot, assists: Ivan Demidov (38), Noah Dobson (32)3–2
- P216:20Collin Graf Goal (18) Snap Shot, assists: Macklin Celebrini (59), John Klingberg (14)3–1
- P211:56Mario Ferraro Goal (5) Snap Shot, assists: Alexander Wennberg (30), William Eklund (29)2–1
- P113:12Macklin Celebrini Goal (34) Snap Shot, assists: Collin Graf (20), John Klingberg (13)1–1
- P17:21Cole Caufield Goal (38) Snap Shot, assists: Juraj Slafkovský (30), Noah Dobson (31)0–1
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- P17:21Cole Caufield Goal (38) Snap Shot, assists: Juraj Slafkovský (30), Noah Dobson (31)SJ 0 – 1 MTL · MTL 58% → 72% +14MTL 58% → 72%+14 pts
- P113:12Macklin Celebrini Goal (34) Snap Shot, assists: Collin Graf (20), John Klingberg (13)SJ 1 – 1 MTL · SJ 27% → 43% +15SJ 27% → 43%+15 pts
- P211:56Mario Ferraro Goal (5) Snap Shot, assists: Alexander Wennberg (30), William Eklund (29)SJ 2 – 1 MTL · SJ 44% → 65% +21SJ 44% → 65%+21 pts
- P216:20Collin Graf Goal (18) Snap Shot, assists: Macklin Celebrini (59), John Klingberg (14)SJ 3 – 1 MTL · SJ 67% → 85% +18SJ 67% → 85%+18 pts
- P217:38Nick Suzuki Goal (22) Snap Shot, assists: Ivan Demidov (38), Noah Dobson (32)SJ 3 – 2 MTL · MTL 14% → 32% +18MTL 14% → 32%+18 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Canadiens 58%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NHL favorites the forecast gave 55–60% have won 56.4% of 1,035 graded games.
- Market
- MTL 58%
- ML SJ +130 / MTL -155
- Pre-line forecast
- MTL 64%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- MTL 64%
- Ratings vs. market
- +5.9 pts
- MTL: Elo 64.2%, market 58.3%
- Fair odds
- MTL -140
- SJ +140 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- SJ 3.0 – 3.5 MTL
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 6.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | SJ | MTL | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1438 | 1518 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +35 | Worth 35 Elo in the NHL |
| Starting goalies | +15 | +2 | SJ: Alex Nedeljkovic: team allows 0.38 fewer goals than with its usual starter (≈42 weighted starts) · MTL: Jakub Dobes: team allows 0.05 fewer goals than with its usual starter (≈31 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | MTL +102 Elo | MTL 64.2% | |
| Market-implied ratings | MTL 63.5% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | MTL 63.7% | 20% Elo, 80% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | MTL 58.3% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Overtime and shootout losses count as losses in these records. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest. Shot share is a team's share of the shots on goal in its games. PDO adds shooting and save percentages: far from 100 tends to even out.
| SJ | Stat | MTL |
|---|---|---|
| 17th of 323.1 | Goals scored | 3.63rd of 32 |
| 30th of 323.5 | Goals allowed | 3.325th of 32 |
| 26th of 32−0.4 | Margin | +0.310th of 32 |
| 31st of 3246.0% | Shot share | 48.9%22nd of 32 |
| 21st of 3289.2% | Save percentage | 88.7%25th of 32 |
| 19th of 324–6 | Last 10 | 6–47th of 32 |
| 19th of 3214–17 | Road vs home | 18–138th of 32 |
| 4th of 321504 | Opponent Elo | 15036th of 32 |
| 30th of 321438 | Elo rating | 151810th of 32 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  SJ |  MTL |
|---|---|---|
| Puck line | 41–22 | 37–27 |
| Last 10 | 5–5 | 7–3 |
| Favorite | 2–4 | 8–23 |
| Underdog | 39–18 | 29–4 |
| Overs–unders | 31–32 | 40–24 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 4–6 | 6–4 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
SJ 2–3 MTL in their last 5 meetings; the forecast called 2 of 5.