Montreal Canadiens at Ottawa Senators, NHL forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors OTT; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Canadiens- Ivan DemidovGoals1
- Ivan DemidovAssists1
- Ivan DemidovPoints2
Senators- Drake BathersonGoals2
- Tim StutzleAssists2
- Drake BathersonPoints2
Scoring summary
- P312:40Ivan Demidov Goal (14) Wrist Shot, assists: Alex Newhook (10), Kaiden Guhle (6)3–2
- P217:29Alexandre Texier Goal (8) Wrap-around, assists: Lane Hutson (55), Jake Evans (10)2–2
- P118:41Drake Batherson Goal (25) Tip-In, assists: Tim Stützle (40), Claude Giroux (29)1–2
- P116:42Drake Batherson Goal (24) Deflected, assists: Brady Tkachuk (27), Tim Stützle (39)1–1
- P11:16Juraj Slafkovský Goal (24) Wrist Shot, assists: Ivan Demidov (37), Nick Suzuki (54)1–0
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- P11:16Juraj Slafkovský Goal (24) Wrist Shot, assists: Ivan Demidov (37), Nick Suzuki (54)MTL 1 – 0 OTT · MTL 37% → 52% +14MTL 37% → 52%+14 pts
- P116:42Drake Batherson Goal (24) Deflected, assists: Brady Tkachuk (27), Tim Stützle (39)MTL 1 – 1 OTT · OTT 44% → 61% +17OTT 44% → 61%+17 pts
- P118:41Drake Batherson Goal (25) Tip-In, assists: Tim Stützle (40), Claude Giroux (29)MTL 1 – 2 OTT · OTT 61% → 76% +15OTT 61% → 76%+15 pts
- P217:29Alexandre Texier Goal (8) Wrap-around, assists: Lane Hutson (55), Jake Evans (10)MTL 2 – 2 OTT · MTL 21% → 42% +21MTL 21% → 42%+21 pts
- P312:40Ivan Demidov Goal (14) Wrist Shot, assists: Alex Newhook (10), Kaiden Guhle (6)MTL 3 – 2 OTT · MTL 45% → 82% +37MTL 45% → 82%+37 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Senators 63%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NHL favorites the forecast gave 60–65% have won 62.4% of 599 graded games.
- Market
- OTT 63%
- ML MTL +160 / OTT -192
- Pre-line forecast
- OTT 65%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- OTT 61%
- Ratings vs. market
- −2.4 pts
- OTT: Elo 60.7%, market 63.1%
- Fair odds
- OTT -171
- MTL +171 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- MTL 2.9 – 3.6 OTT
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 6.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | MTL | OTT | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1515 | 1525 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +35 | Worth 35 Elo in the NHL |
| Rest | −30 | — | MTL on the second night of a back-to-back |
| Starting goalies | +6 | +7 | MTL: Jacob Fowler: team allows 0.14 fewer goals than with its usual starter (≈9 weighted starts) · OTT: Linus Ullmark: team allows 0.16 fewer goals than with its usual starter (≈46 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | OTT +75 Elo | OTT 60.7% | |
| Market-implied ratings | OTT 66.1% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | OTT 65.0% | 20% Elo, 80% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | OTT 63.1% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Overtime and shootout losses count as losses in these records. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest. Shot share is a team's share of the shots on goal in its games. PDO adds shooting and save percentages: far from 100 tends to even out.
| MTL | Stat | OTT |
|---|---|---|
| 3rd of 323.6 | Goals scored | 3.48th of 32 |
| 25th of 323.3 | Goals allowed | 3.119th of 32 |
| 10th of 32+0.2 | Margin | +0.39th of 32 |
| 21st of 3249.1% | Shot share | 54.2%3rd of 32 |
| 26th of 3288.6% | Save percentage | 87.5%32nd of 32 |
| 9th of 326–4 | Last 10 | 7–35th of 32 |
| 10th of 3217–15 | Road vs home | 14–1522nd of 32 |
| 9th of 321502 | Opponent Elo | 149923rd of 32 |
| 10th of 321515 | Elo rating | 15258th of 32 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  MTL |  OTT |
|---|---|---|
| Puck line | 36–27 | 29–34 |
| Last 10 | 7–3 | 7–3 |
| Favorite | 8–23 | 15–29 |
| Underdog | 28–4 | 14–5 |
| Overs–unders | 40–23 | 36–27 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 7–3 | 4–6 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
MTL 5–5 OTT in their last 10 meetings; the forecast called 5 of 10.