San Jose Sharks at Boston Bruins, NHL forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors BOS; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Sharks- William EklundGoals1
- William EklundAssists1
- Tyler ToffoliPoints2
Bruins- David PastrnakGoals1
- David PastrnakAssists1
- David PastrnakPoints2
Scoring summary
- P319:07David Pastrnak Goal (24) Slap Shot, assists: Charlie McAvoy (40), Casey Mittelstadt (20)4–2
- P38:30Fraser Minten Goal (15) Wrist Shot, assists: David Pastrnak (54), Marat Khusnutdinov (15)4–1
- P38:20William Eklund Goal (12) Batted, assists: Sam Dickinson (10), Michael Misa (9)4–0
- P33:13Collin Graf Goal (17) Wrist Shot, assists: Alexander Wennberg (29)3–0
- P214:15Tyler Toffoli Goal (17) Deflected, assists: Macklin Celebrini (58), Dmitry Orlov (25)2–0
- P15:57Michael Misa Goal (6) Wrist Shot, assists: William Eklund (28), Tyler Toffoli (25)1–0
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- P15:57Michael Misa Goal (6) Wrist Shot, assists: William Eklund (28), Tyler Toffoli (25)SJ 1 – 0 BOS · SJ 41% → 56% +15SJ 41% → 56%+15 pts
- P214:15Tyler Toffoli Goal (17) Deflected, assists: Macklin Celebrini (58), Dmitry Orlov (25)SJ 2 – 0 BOS · SJ 66% → 83% +18SJ 66% → 83%+18 pts
- P33:13Collin Graf Goal (17) Wrist Shot, assists: Alexander Wennberg (29)SJ 3 – 0 BOS · SJ 90% → 97% +8SJ 90% → 97%+8 pts
- P38:20William Eklund Goal (12) Batted, assists: Sam Dickinson (10), Michael Misa (9)SJ 4 – 0 BOS · SJ >99% → >99% +1SJ >99% → >99%+1 pts
- P38:30Fraser Minten Goal (15) Wrist Shot, assists: David Pastrnak (54), Marat Khusnutdinov (15)SJ 4 – 1 BOS · BOS <1% → <1% +1BOS <1% → <1%+1 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Bruins 59%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NHL favorites the forecast gave 55–60% have won 56.4% of 1,035 graded games.
- Market
- BOS 59%
- ML SJ +136 / BOS -162
- Pre-line forecast
- BOS 59%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- BOS 63%
- Ratings vs. market
- +3.8 pts
- BOS: Elo 63.2%, market 59.3%
- Fair odds
- BOS -146
- SJ +146 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- SJ 3.0 – 3.5 BOS
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 6.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | SJ | BOS | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1433 | 1501 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +35 | Worth 35 Elo in the NHL |
| Starting goalies | +16 | +7 | SJ: Alex Nedeljkovic: team allows 0.39 fewer goals than with its usual starter (≈42 weighted starts) · BOS: Jeremy Swayman: team allows 0.16 fewer goals than with its usual starter (≈48 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | BOS +94 Elo | BOS 63.2% | |
| Market-implied ratings | BOS 58.0% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | BOS 59.1% | 20% Elo, 80% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | BOS 59.3% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Overtime and shootout losses count as losses in these records. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest. Shot share is a team's share of the shots on goal in its games. PDO adds shooting and save percentages: far from 100 tends to even out.
| SJ | Stat | BOS |
|---|---|---|
| 18th of 323.1 | Goals scored | 3.312th of 32 |
| 30th of 323.5 | Goals allowed | 3.118th of 32 |
| 27th of 32−0.4 | Margin | +0.211th of 32 |
| 31st of 3246.2% | Shot share | 47.5%25th of 32 |
| 22nd of 3289.1% | Save percentage | 90.1%11th of 32 |
| 27th of 323–7 | Last 10 | 5–513th of 32 |
| 22nd of 3213–17 | Road vs home | 25–91st of 32 |
| 5th of 321504 | Opponent Elo | 150112th of 32 |
| 30th of 321433 | Elo rating | 150117th of 32 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  SJ |  BOS |
|---|---|---|
| Puck line | 40–22 | 40–24 |
| Last 10 | 5–5 | 6–4 |
| Favorite | 2–4 | 10–12 |
| Underdog | 38–18 | 30–12 |
| Overs–unders | 31–31 | 35–29 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 4–6 | 5–5 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
SJ 2–3 BOS in their last 5 meetings; the forecast called 2 of 5.