Los Angeles Kings at Boston Bruins, NHL forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors BOS; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Kings- Drew DoughtyGoals1
- Trevor MooreAssists1
- Drew DoughtyPoints1
Bruins- Charlie McAvoyGoals1
- Viktor ArvidssonAssists1
- Charlie McAvoyPoints1
Scoring summary
- OT0:39Charlie McAvoy Goal (7) Backhand, assists: David Pastrnak (53), Mark Kastelic (9)1–2
- P314:00Drew Doughty Goal (4) Slap Shot, assists: Trevor Moore (11), Adrian Kempe (31)1–1
- P38:22Mason Lohrei Goal (7) Snap Shot, assists: Hampus Lindholm (18), Viktor Arvidsson (18)0–1
Turning points
The 3 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- P38:22Mason Lohrei Goal (7) Snap Shot, assists: Hampus Lindholm (18), Viktor Arvidsson (18)LA 0 – 1 BOS · BOS 54% → 82% +28BOS 54% → 82%+28 pts
- P314:00Drew Doughty Goal (4) Slap Shot, assists: Trevor Moore (11), Adrian Kempe (31)LA 1 – 1 BOS · LA 11% → 47% +36LA 11% → 47%+36 pts
- OT0:39Charlie McAvoy Goal (7) Backhand, assists: David Pastrnak (53), Mark Kastelic (9)LA 1 – 2 BOS · BOS 53% → 92% +40BOS 53% → 92%+40 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Bruins 59%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NHL favorites the forecast gave 55–60% have won 56.4% of 1,035 graded games.
- Market
- BOS 59%
- ML LA +136 / BOS -162
- Pre-line forecast
- BOS 63%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- BOS 63%
- Ratings vs. market
- +3.2 pts
- BOS: Elo 62.5%, market 59.3%
- Fair odds
- BOS -146
- LA +146 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- LA 2.5 – 3.0 BOS
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 5.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | LA | BOS | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1484 | 1500 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +35 | Worth 35 Elo in the NHL |
| Rest | −30 | — | LA on the second night of a back-to-back |
| Starting goalies | −2 | +5 | LA: Darcy Kuemper: team allows 0.06 more goals than with its usual starter (≈46 weighted starts) · BOS: Jeremy Swayman: team allows 0.14 fewer goals than with its usual starter (≈48 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | BOS +89 Elo | BOS 62.5% | |
| Market-implied ratings | BOS 63.0% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | BOS 62.9% | 20% Elo, 80% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | BOS 59.3% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Overtime and shootout losses count as losses in these records. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest. Shot share is a team's share of the shots on goal in its games. PDO adds shooting and save percentages: far from 100 tends to even out.
| LA | Stat | BOS |
|---|---|---|
| 28th of 322.7 | Goals scored | 3.410th of 32 |
| 14th of 323.0 | Goals allowed | 3.218th of 32 |
| 23rd of 32−0.3 | Margin | +0.211th of 32 |
| 14th of 3250.2% | Shot share | 47.4%26th of 32 |
| 13th of 3289.9% | Save percentage | 90.0%12th of 32 |
| 26th of 323–7 | Last 10 | 5–514th of 32 |
| 12th of 3216–15 | Road vs home | 24–92nd of 32 |
| 7th of 321503 | Opponent Elo | 150112th of 32 |
| 21st of 321484 | Elo rating | 150018th of 32 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  LA |  BOS |
|---|---|---|
| Puck line | 23–40 | 40–23 |
| Last 10 | 4–6 | 6–4 |
| Favorite | 7–31 | 10–11 |
| Underdog | 16–9 | 30–12 |
| Overs–unders | 30–33 | 35–28 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 7–3 | 5–5 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
LA 2–3 BOS in their last 5 meetings; the forecast called 2 of 5.