Boston Bruins at New Jersey Devils, NHL forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors NJ; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Bruins- David PastrnakGoals2
- Marat KhusnutdinovAssists1
- David PastrnakPoints2
Devils- Paul CotterGoals2
- Jack HughesAssists3
- Jack HughesPoints3
Scoring summary
- OT4:53Paul Cotter Goal (8) Wrist Shot, assists: Jack Hughes (34), Dougie Hamilton (21)3–4
- P34:32David Pastrnak Goal (26) Backhand, assists: none3–3
- P32:50Paul Cotter Goal (7) Wrist Shot, assists: Maksim Tsyplakov (2), Brenden Dillon (10)2–3
- P28:08Jesper Bratt Goal (15) Slap Shot, assists: Connor Brown (19), Jack Hughes (33)2–2
- P20:32Connor Brown Goal (12) Snap Shot, assists: Jack Hughes (32)2–1
- P114:29Pavel Zacha Goal (20) Wrist Shot, assists: Viktor Arvidsson (20), Charlie McAvoy (41)2–0
- P14:02David Pastrnak Goal (25) Wrist Shot, assists: Henri Jokiharju (10), Marat Khusnutdinov (16)1–0
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- P14:02David Pastrnak Goal (25) Wrist Shot, assists: Henri Jokiharju (10), Marat Khusnutdinov (16)BOS 1 – 0 NJ · BOS 47% → 62% +15BOS 47% → 62%+15 pts
- P28:08Jesper Bratt Goal (15) Slap Shot, assists: Connor Brown (19), Jack Hughes (33)BOS 2 – 2 NJ · NJ 33% → 52% +19NJ 33% → 52%+19 pts
- P32:50Paul Cotter Goal (7) Wrist Shot, assists: Maksim Tsyplakov (2), Brenden Dillon (10)BOS 2 – 3 NJ · NJ 52% → 77% +25NJ 52% → 77%+25 pts
- P34:32David Pastrnak Goal (26) Backhand, assists: noneBOS 3 – 3 NJ · BOS 22% → 48% +26BOS 22% → 48%+26 pts
- OT4:53Paul Cotter Goal (8) Wrist Shot, assists: Jack Hughes (34), Dougie Hamilton (21)BOS 3 – 4 NJ · NJ 50% → 100% +50NJ 50% → 100%+50 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Devils 53%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NHL favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 51.2% of 926 graded games.
- Market
- NJ 53%
- ML BOS +105 / NJ -125
- Pre-line forecast
- NJ 55%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- NJ 53%
- Ratings vs. market
- −0.7 pts
- NJ: Elo 52.6%, market 53.2%
- Fair odds
- NJ -114
- BOS +114 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- BOS 3.2 – 3.3 NJ
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 6.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | BOS | NJ | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1499 | 1475 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +35 | Worth 35 Elo in the NHL |
| Starting goalies | −8 | 0 | BOS: Joonas Korpisalo: team allows 0.20 more goals than with its usual starter (≈43 weighted starts) · NJ: Jacob Markstrom: team allows 0.01 more goals than with its usual starter (≈47 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | NJ +18 Elo | NJ 52.6% | |
| Market-implied ratings | NJ 55.5% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | NJ 55.0% | 20% Elo, 80% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | NJ 53.2% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Overtime and shootout losses count as losses in these records. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest. Shot share is a team's share of the shots on goal in its games. PDO adds shooting and save percentages: far from 100 tends to even out.
| BOS | Stat | NJ |
|---|---|---|
| 12th of 323.3 | Goals scored | 2.727th of 32 |
| 20th of 323.1 | Goals allowed | 3.013th of 32 |
| 11th of 32+0.2 | Margin | −0.426th of 32 |
| 25th of 3247.9% | Shot share | 51.8%7th of 32 |
| 12th of 3290.0% | Save percentage | 89.6%19th of 32 |
| 12th of 325–5 | Last 10 | 5–512th of 32 |
| 24th of 3212–18 | Road vs home | 17–1718th of 32 |
| 17th of 321500 | Opponent Elo | 15053rd of 32 |
| 18th of 321499 | Elo rating | 147526th of 32 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  BOS |  NJ |
|---|---|---|
| Puck line | 41–25 | 23–43 |
| Last 10 | 5–5 | 4–6 |
| Favorite | 10–13 | 8–33 |
| Underdog | 31–12 | 15–10 |
| Overs–unders | 35–31 | 28–38 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 3–7 | 5–5 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
BOS 4–3 NJ in their last 7 meetings; the forecast called 5 of 7.