Los Angeles Kings at New Jersey Devils, NHL forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors NJ; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Kings- Anze KopitarGoals2
- Brandt ClarkeAssists3
- Artemi PanarinPoints3
Devils- Nico HischierGoals2
- Nico HischierAssists2
- Nico HischierPoints4
Scoring summary
- P319:52Timo Meier Goal (18) Snap Shot, assists: Nico Hischier (27)4–6
- P317:31Jack Hughes Goal (17) Snap Shot, assists: Nico Hischier (26), Dougie Hamilton (20)4–5
- P313:42Anze Kopitar Goal (10) Snap Shot, assists: Artemi Panarin (47), Brandt Clarke (29)4–4
- P312:42Nico Hischier Goal (23) Snap Shot, assists: Connor Brown (18), Jesper Bratt (37)3–4
- P30:25Arseny Gritsyuk Goal (12) Tip-In, assists: Lenni Hameenaho (4), Dougie Hamilton (19)3–3
- P211:43Taylor Ward Goal (3) Slap Shot, assists: Brandt Clarke (28), Samuel Helenius (4)3–2
- P26:03Artemi Panarin Goal (22) Wrist Shot, assists: Joel Edmundson (16), Adrian Kempe (32)2–2
- P24:15Anze Kopitar Goal (9) Tip-In, assists: Brandt Clarke (27), Artemi Panarin (46)1–2
- P111:04Nico Hischier Goal (22) Snap Shot, assists: Timo Meier (15), Luke Hughes (26)0–2
- P17:58Cody Glass Goal (15) Wrist Shot, assists: Arseny Gritsyuk (17)0–1
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- P211:43Taylor Ward Goal (3) Slap Shot, assists: Brandt Clarke (28), Samuel Helenius (4)LA 3 – 2 NJ · LA 44% → 65% +21LA 44% → 65%+21 pts
- P30:25Arseny Gritsyuk Goal (12) Tip-In, assists: Lenni Hameenaho (4), Dougie Hamilton (19)LA 3 – 3 NJ · NJ 30% → 55% +25NJ 30% → 55%+25 pts
- P312:42Nico Hischier Goal (23) Snap Shot, assists: Connor Brown (18), Jesper Bratt (37)LA 3 – 4 NJ · NJ 53% → 87% +34NJ 53% → 87%+34 pts
- P313:42Anze Kopitar Goal (10) Snap Shot, assists: Artemi Panarin (47), Brandt Clarke (29)LA 4 – 4 NJ · LA 12% → 47% +36LA 12% → 47%+36 pts
- P317:31Jack Hughes Goal (17) Snap Shot, assists: Nico Hischier (26), Dougie Hamilton (20)LA 4 – 5 NJ · NJ 52% → 97% +45NJ 52% → 97%+45 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Devils 58%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NHL favorites the forecast gave 55–60% have won 56.4% of 1,035 graded games.
- Market
- NJ 58%
- ML LA +130 / NJ -155
- Pre-line forecast
- NJ 59%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- NJ 58%
- Ratings vs. market
- −0.1 pts
- NJ: Elo 58.2%, market 58.3%
- Fair odds
- NJ -140
- LA +140 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- LA 2.5 – 3.0 NJ
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 5.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | LA | NJ | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1485 | 1472 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +35 | Worth 35 Elo in the NHL |
| Rest | −30 | — | LA on the second night of a back-to-back |
| Starting goalies | −3 | +3 | LA: Anton Forsberg: team allows 0.07 more goals than with its usual starter (≈39 weighted starts) · NJ: Jake Allen: team allows 0.07 fewer goals than with its usual starter (≈42 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | NJ +57 Elo | NJ 58.2% | |
| Market-implied ratings | NJ 59.5% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | NJ 59.2% | 20% Elo, 80% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | NJ 58.3% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Overtime and shootout losses count as losses in these records. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest. Shot share is a team's share of the shots on goal in its games. PDO adds shooting and save percentages: far from 100 tends to even out.
| LA | Stat | NJ |
|---|---|---|
| 29th of 322.6 | Goals scored | 2.630th of 32 |
| 8th of 323.0 | Goals allowed | 3.012th of 32 |
| 24th of 32−0.3 | Margin | −0.427th of 32 |
| 15th of 3250.2% | Shot share | 51.9%7th of 32 |
| 13th of 3290.0% | Save percentage | 89.6%19th of 32 |
| 19th of 324–6 | Last 10 | 4–619th of 32 |
| 12th of 3217–16 | Road vs home | 16–1721st of 32 |
| 8th of 321503 | Opponent Elo | 15053rd of 32 |
| 21st of 321485 | Elo rating | 147225th of 32 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  LA |  NJ |
|---|---|---|
| Puck line | 25–40 | 22–43 |
| Last 10 | 5–5 | 3–7 |
| Favorite | 7–31 | 7–33 |
| Underdog | 18–9 | 15–10 |
| Overs–unders | 30–35 | 27–38 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 6–4 | 4–6 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
LA 3–2 NJ in their last 5 meetings; the forecast called 2 of 5.