Calgary Flames at New Jersey Devils, NHL forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors NJ; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Flames- John BeecherGoals2
- Ryan StromeAssists1
- John BeecherPoints2
Devils- Luke HughesGoals1
- Jesper BrattAssists2
- Jack HughesPoints2
Scoring summary
- P319:56Luke Hughes Goal (6) Wrist Shot, assists: Jesper Bratt (36), Jack Hughes (31)5–4
- P39:38Jack Hughes Goal (16) Snap Shot, assists: Jesper Bratt (35), Dougie Hamilton (18)5–3
- P34:10Mikael Backlund Goal (14) Wrist Shot, assists: Joel Farabee (15), Brayden Pachal (4)5–2
- P216:48Yegor Sharangovich Goal (14) Backhand, assists: Ryan Strome (9), Victor Olofsson (15)4–2
- P21:36Simon Nemec Goal (10) Wrist Shot, assists: Luke Hughes (25), Jacob Markstrom (4)3–2
- P20:54John Beecher Goal (3) Wrist Shot, assists: none3–1
- P116:14Maksim Tsyplakov Goal (2) Snap Shot, assists: Nick Bjugstad (2)2–1
- P114:07Kevin Bahl Goal (4) Slap Shot, assists: Olli Maatta (4), Adam Klapka (9)2–0
- P15:04John Beecher Goal (2) Wrist Shot, assists: Matvei Gridin (5)1–0
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- P114:07Kevin Bahl Goal (4) Slap Shot, assists: Olli Maatta (4), Adam Klapka (9)CGY 2 – 0 NJ · CGY 55% → 71% +16CGY 55% → 71%+16 pts
- P116:14Maksim Tsyplakov Goal (2) Snap Shot, assists: Nick Bjugstad (2)CGY 2 – 1 NJ · NJ 28% → 44% +16NJ 28% → 44%+16 pts
- P20:54John Beecher Goal (3) Wrist Shot, assists: noneCGY 3 – 1 NJ · CGY 57% → 74% +16CGY 57% → 74%+16 pts
- P21:36Simon Nemec Goal (10) Wrist Shot, assists: Luke Hughes (25), Jacob Markstrom (4)CGY 3 – 2 NJ · NJ 26% → 43% +17NJ 26% → 43%+17 pts
- P216:48Yegor Sharangovich Goal (14) Backhand, assists: Ryan Strome (9), Victor Olofsson (15)CGY 4 – 2 NJ · CGY 65% → 83% +19CGY 65% → 83%+19 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Devils 63%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NHL favorites the forecast gave 60–65% have won 62.4% of 599 graded games.
- Market
- NJ 63%
- ML CGY +160 / NJ -192
- Pre-line forecast
- NJ 61%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- NJ 59%
- Ratings vs. market
- −4.0 pts
- NJ: Elo 59.1%, market 63.1%
- Fair odds
- NJ -171
- CGY +171 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- CGY 2.4 – 3.1 NJ
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 5.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | CGY | NJ | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1448 | 1475 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +35 | Worth 35 Elo in the NHL |
| Starting goalies | −1 | +1 | CGY: Dustin Wolf: team allows 0.03 more goals than with its usual starter (≈45 weighted starts) · NJ: Jacob Markstrom: team allows 0.03 fewer goals than with its usual starter (≈47 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | NJ +64 Elo | NJ 59.1% | |
| Market-implied ratings | NJ 61.0% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | NJ 60.7% | 20% Elo, 80% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | NJ 63.1% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Overtime and shootout losses count as losses in these records. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest. Shot share is a team's share of the shots on goal in its games. PDO adds shooting and save percentages: far from 100 tends to even out.
| CGY | Stat | NJ |
|---|---|---|
| 32nd of 322.5 | Goals scored | 2.630th of 32 |
| 16th of 323.1 | Goals allowed | 3.09th of 32 |
| 30th of 32−0.7 | Margin | −0.426th of 32 |
| 20th of 3249.2% | Shot share | 51.9%7th of 32 |
| 7th of 3290.3% | Save percentage | 89.7%19th of 32 |
| 27th of 323–7 | Last 10 | 4–617th of 32 |
| 32nd of 329–23 | Road vs home | 16–1618th of 32 |
| 28th of 321496 | Opponent Elo | 15061st of 32 |
| 29th of 321448 | Elo rating | 147523rd of 32 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  CGY |  NJ |
|---|---|---|
| Puck line | 33–31 | 22–42 |
| Last 10 | 4–6 | 3–7 |
| Favorite | 7–8 | 7–32 |
| Underdog | 26–23 | 15–10 |
| Overs–unders | 33–31 | 26–38 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 4–6 | 3–7 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
CGY 3–2 NJ in their last 5 meetings; the forecast called 1 of 5.