Los Angeles Kings at New York Islanders, NHL forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors NYI; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Kings- Anze KopitarGoals1
- Artemi PanarinAssists1
- Anze KopitarPoints1
Islanders- Emil HeinemanGoals2
- Bo HorvatAssists2
- Emil HeinemanPoints2
Scoring summary
- P33:38Emil Heineman Goal (18) Deflected, assists: Matthew Schaefer (28), Bo Horvat (19)3–2
- P210:46Emil Heineman Goal (17) Tip-In, assists: Adam Pelech (9), Bo Horvat (18)3–1
- P118:28Adrian Kempe Goal (26) Wrist Shot, assists: Artemi Panarin (45)3–0
- P113:07Anze Kopitar Goal (8) Wrist Shot, assists: Mikey Anderson (10), Alex Turcotte (11)2–0
- P13:33Trevor Moore Goal (8) Wrist Shot, assists: none1–0
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- P13:33Trevor Moore Goal (8) Wrist Shot, assists: noneLA 1 – 0 NYI · LA 44% → 59% +15LA 44% → 59%+15 pts
- P113:07Anze Kopitar Goal (8) Wrist Shot, assists: Mikey Anderson (10), Alex Turcotte (11)LA 2 – 0 NYI · LA 61% → 75% +15LA 61% → 75%+15 pts
- P118:28Adrian Kempe Goal (26) Wrist Shot, assists: Artemi Panarin (45)LA 3 – 0 NYI · LA 77% → 88% +11LA 77% → 88%+11 pts
- P210:46Emil Heineman Goal (17) Tip-In, assists: Adam Pelech (9), Bo Horvat (18)LA 3 – 1 NYI · NYI 7% → 18% +10NYI 7% → 18%+10 pts
- P33:38Emil Heineman Goal (18) Deflected, assists: Matthew Schaefer (28), Bo Horvat (19)LA 3 – 2 NYI · NYI 9% → 27% +17NYI 9% → 27%+17 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Islanders 56%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NHL favorites the forecast gave 55–60% have won 56.4% of 1,035 graded games.
- Market
- NYI 56%
- ML LA +120 / NYI -142
- Pre-line forecast
- NYI 59%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- NYI 57%
- Ratings vs. market
- +1.1 pts
- NYI: Elo 57.4%, market 56.3%
- Fair odds
- NYI -129
- LA +129 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- LA 2.6 – 2.9 NYI
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 5.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | LA | NYI | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1482 | 1496 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +35 | Worth 35 Elo in the NHL |
| Starting goalies | −1 | +2 | LA: Darcy Kuemper: team allows 0.03 more goals than with its usual starter (≈46 weighted starts) · NYI: Ilya Sorokin: team allows 0.04 fewer goals than with its usual starter (≈48 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | NYI +52 Elo | NYI 57.4% | |
| Market-implied ratings | NYI 59.3% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | NYI 58.9% | 20% Elo, 80% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | NYI 56.3% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Overtime and shootout losses count as losses in these records. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest. Shot share is a team's share of the shots on goal in its games. PDO adds shooting and save percentages: far from 100 tends to even out.
| LA | Stat | NYI |
|---|---|---|
| 29th of 322.6 | Goals scored | 3.021st of 32 |
| 9th of 323.0 | Goals allowed | 2.96th of 32 |
| 24th of 32−0.4 | Margin | +0.114th of 32 |
| 15th of 3250.1% | Shot share | 50.1%16th of 32 |
| 13th of 3289.9% | Save percentage | 90.7%3rd of 32 |
| 28th of 323–7 | Last 10 | 7–34th of 32 |
| 12th of 3216–16 | Road vs home | 17–129th of 32 |
| 6th of 321503 | Opponent Elo | 149920th of 32 |
| 21st of 321482 | Elo rating | 149618th of 32 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  LA |  NYI |
|---|---|---|
| Puck line | 24–40 | 34–31 |
| Last 10 | 4–6 | 5–5 |
| Favorite | 7–31 | 3–20 |
| Underdog | 17–9 | 31–11 |
| Overs–unders | 30–34 | 32–33 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 7–3 | 6–4 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
LA 4–1 NYI in their last 5 meetings; the forecast called 5 of 5.