Boston Bruins at Washington Capitals, NHL forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors WSH; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Bruins- Charlie McAvoyGoals2
- David PastrnakAssists1
- Charlie McAvoyPoints2
Capitals- Rasmus SandinGoals1
- Rasmus SandinAssists1
- Rasmus SandinPoints2
Scoring summary
- SO0:00Fraser Minten Goal Backhand1–0
- P310:09Charlie McAvoy Goal (9) Tip-In, assists: Pavel Zacha (27), Viktor Arvidsson (19)2–2
- P33:12Rasmus Sandin Goal (4) Slap Shot, assists: none1–2
- P211:57Charlie McAvoy Goal (8) Slap Shot, assists: David Pastrnak (55)1–1
- P21:15Matt Roy Goal (2) Slap Shot, assists: Rasmus Sandin (20), Hendrix Lapierre (10)0–1
Turning points
The 4 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- P21:15Matt Roy Goal (2) Slap Shot, assists: Rasmus Sandin (20), Hendrix Lapierre (10)BOS 0 – 1 WSH · WSH 53% → 71% +17WSH 53% → 71%+17 pts
- P211:57Charlie McAvoy Goal (8) Slap Shot, assists: David Pastrnak (55)BOS 1 – 1 WSH · BOS 27% → 47% +20BOS 27% → 47%+20 pts
- P33:12Rasmus Sandin Goal (4) Slap Shot, assists: noneBOS 1 – 2 WSH · WSH 52% → 77% +25WSH 52% → 77%+25 pts
- P310:09Charlie McAvoy Goal (9) Tip-In, assists: Pavel Zacha (27), Viktor Arvidsson (19)BOS 2 – 2 WSH · BOS 17% → 48% +31BOS 17% → 48%+31 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Capitals 54%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NHL favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 51.2% of 926 graded games.
- Market
- WSH 54%
- ML BOS +110 / WSH -130
- Pre-line forecast
- WSH 58%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- WSH 57%
- Ratings vs. market
- +2.5 pts
- WSH: Elo 56.8%, market 54.3%
- Fair odds
- WSH -119
- BOS +119 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- BOS 2.6 – 2.9 WSH
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 5.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | BOS | WSH | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1496 | 1509 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +35 | Worth 35 Elo in the NHL |
| Starting goalies | +5 | +5 | BOS: Jeremy Swayman: team allows 0.13 fewer goals than with its usual starter (≈48 weighted starts) · WSH: Logan Thompson: team allows 0.12 fewer goals than with its usual starter (≈47 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | WSH +47 Elo | WSH 56.8% | |
| Market-implied ratings | WSH 58.4% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | WSH 58.1% | 20% Elo, 80% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | WSH 54.3% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Overtime and shootout losses count as losses in these records. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest. Shot share is a team's share of the shots on goal in its games. PDO adds shooting and save percentages: far from 100 tends to even out.
| BOS | Stat | WSH |
|---|---|---|
| 11th of 323.3 | Goals scored | 3.116th of 32 |
| 20th of 323.2 | Goals allowed | 3.09th of 32 |
| 11th of 32+0.2 | Margin | +0.112th of 32 |
| 25th of 3247.7% | Shot share | 50.7%12th of 32 |
| 12th of 3290.0% | Save percentage | 90.3%8th of 32 |
| 17th of 324–6 | Last 10 | 5–512th of 32 |
| 27th of 3211–18 | Road vs home | 20–148th of 32 |
| 18th of 321500 | Opponent Elo | 150017th of 32 |
| 17th of 321496 | Elo rating | 150913th of 32 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  BOS |  WSH |
|---|---|---|
| Puck line | 40–25 | 35–32 |
| Last 10 | 5–5 | 4–6 |
| Favorite | 10–13 | 20–25 |
| Underdog | 30–12 | 15–7 |
| Overs–unders | 35–30 | 30–37 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 4–6 | 2–8 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
BOS 4–4 WSH in their last 8 meetings; the forecast called 5 of 8.