Anaheim Ducks at Montreal Canadiens, NHL forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors MTL; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Ducks- Leo CarlssonGoals2
- Troy TerryAssists2
- Leo CarlssonPoints3
Canadiens- Nick SuzukiGoals1
- Nick SuzukiAssists1
- Nick SuzukiPoints2
Scoring summary
- P317:30Cutter Gauthier Goal (34) Snap Shot, assists: Jeffrey Viel (4), Ryan Poehling (21)4–3
- P215:39Troy Terry Goal (14) Backhand, assists: Chris Kreider (21), Leo Carlsson (32)3–3
- P213:06Nick Suzuki Goal (23) Snap Shot, assists: Juraj Slafkovský (31), Josh Anderson (9)2–3
- P22:33Cole Caufield Goal (39) Snap Shot, assists: Noah Dobson (33), Nick Suzuki (55)2–2
- P21:33Alex Newhook Goal (9) Snap Shot, assists: Lane Hutson (56)2–1
- P20:27Leo Carlsson Goal (23) Slap Shot, assists: Jackson LaCombe (39), Troy Terry (34)2–0
- P17:46Leo Carlsson Goal (22) Snap Shot, assists: Chris Kreider (20), Troy Terry (33)1–0
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- P21:33Alex Newhook Goal (9) Snap Shot, assists: Lane Hutson (56)ANA 2 – 1 MTL · MTL 22% → 37% +15MTL 22% → 37%+15 pts
- P22:33Cole Caufield Goal (39) Snap Shot, assists: Noah Dobson (33), Nick Suzuki (55)ANA 2 – 2 MTL · MTL 37% → 55% +18MTL 37% → 55%+18 pts
- P213:06Nick Suzuki Goal (23) Snap Shot, assists: Juraj Slafkovský (31), Josh Anderson (9)ANA 2 – 3 MTL · MTL 54% → 74% +20MTL 54% → 74%+20 pts
- P215:39Troy Terry Goal (14) Backhand, assists: Chris Kreider (21), Leo Carlsson (32)ANA 3 – 3 MTL · ANA 25% → 46% +21ANA 25% → 46%+21 pts
- P317:30Cutter Gauthier Goal (34) Snap Shot, assists: Jeffrey Viel (4), Ryan Poehling (21)ANA 4 – 3 MTL · ANA 49% → 96% +47ANA 49% → 96%+47 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Canadiens 56%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NHL favorites the forecast gave 55–60% have won 56.4% of 1,035 graded games.
- Market
- MTL 56%
- ML ANA +120 / MTL -142
- Pre-line forecast
- MTL 54%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- MTL 57%
- Ratings vs. market
- +0.4 pts
- MTL: Elo 56.8%, market 56.3%
- Fair odds
- MTL -129
- ANA +129 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- ANA 3.1 – 3.4 MTL
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 6.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | ANA | MTL | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1476 | 1513 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +35 | Worth 35 Elo in the NHL |
| Rest | — | −30 | MTL on the second night of a back-to-back |
| Starting goalies | +2 | +8 | ANA: Lukas Dostal: team allows 0.06 fewer goals than with its usual starter (≈46 weighted starts) · MTL: Jacob Fowler: team allows 0.19 fewer goals than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | MTL +47 Elo | MTL 56.8% | |
| Market-implied ratings | MTL 53.1% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | MTL 53.9% | 20% Elo, 80% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | MTL 56.3% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Overtime and shootout losses count as losses in these records. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest. Shot share is a team's share of the shots on goal in its games. PDO adds shooting and save percentages: far from 100 tends to even out.
| ANA | Stat | MTL |
|---|---|---|
| 11th of 323.3 | Goals scored | 3.54th of 32 |
| 29th of 323.5 | Goals allowed | 3.326th of 32 |
| 18th of 32−0.2 | Margin | +0.210th of 32 |
| 10th of 3251.1% | Shot share | 49.0%22nd of 32 |
| 25th of 3288.7% | Save percentage | 88.7%27th of 32 |
| 8th of 326–4 | Last 10 | 5–512th of 32 |
| 23rd of 3214–19 | Road vs home | 18–1410th of 32 |
| 13th of 321501 | Opponent Elo | 150210th of 32 |
| 24th of 321476 | Elo rating | 151310th of 32 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  ANA |  MTL |
|---|---|---|
| Puck line | 32–34 | 37–28 |
| Last 10 | 4–6 | 6–4 |
| Favorite | 4–16 | 8–24 |
| Underdog | 28–18 | 29–4 |
| Overs–unders | 39–27 | 40–25 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 4–6 | 6–4 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
ANA 2–3 MTL in their last 5 meetings; the forecast called 2 of 5.