Anaheim Ducks at Ottawa Senators, NHL forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors OTT; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Ducks
Senators- Thomas ChabotGoals1
- Shane PintoAssists2
- Shane PintoPoints2
Scoring summary
- P29:21Thomas Chabot Goal (7) Wrist Shot, assists: Shane Pinto (19)0–2
- P23:54Michael Amadio Goal (11) Wrist Shot, assists: Shane Pinto (18), Nick Cousins (12)0–1
Turning points
The 2 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- P23:54Michael Amadio Goal (11) Wrist Shot, assists: Shane Pinto (18), Nick Cousins (12)ANA 0 – 1 OTT · OTT 59% → 76% +17OTT 59% → 76%+17 pts
- P29:21Thomas Chabot Goal (7) Wrist Shot, assists: Shane Pinto (19)ANA 0 – 2 OTT · OTT 76% → 89% +13OTT 76% → 89%+13 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Senators 62%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NHL favorites the forecast gave 60–65% have won 62.4% of 599 graded games.
- Market
- OTT 62%
- ML ANA +150 / OTT -180
- Pre-line forecast
- OTT 65%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- OTT 63%
- Ratings vs. market
- +1.1 pts
- OTT: Elo 62.8%, market 61.6%
- Fair odds
- OTT -161
- ANA +161 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- ANA 2.9 – 3.6 OTT
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 6.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | ANA | OTT | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1479 | 1522 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +35 | Worth 35 Elo in the NHL |
| Starting goalies | −7 | +6 | ANA: Ville Husso: team allows 0.18 more goals than with its usual starter (≈29 weighted starts) · OTT: Linus Ullmark: team allows 0.15 fewer goals than with its usual starter (≈46 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | OTT +91 Elo | OTT 62.8% | |
| Market-implied ratings | OTT 65.9% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | OTT 65.3% | 20% Elo, 80% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | OTT 61.6% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Overtime and shootout losses count as losses in these records. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest. Shot share is a team's share of the shots on goal in its games. PDO adds shooting and save percentages: far from 100 tends to even out.
| ANA | Stat | OTT |
|---|---|---|
| 9th of 323.4 | Goals scored | 3.48th of 32 |
| 30th of 323.5 | Goals allowed | 3.119th of 32 |
| 18th of 32−0.1 | Margin | +0.210th of 32 |
| 10th of 3251.2% | Shot share | 54.2%3rd of 32 |
| 26th of 3288.7% | Save percentage | 87.5%32nd of 32 |
| 4th of 327–3 | Last 10 | 6–48th of 32 |
| 22nd of 3214–18 | Road vs home | 14–1625th of 32 |
| 15th of 321501 | Opponent Elo | 149921st of 32 |
| 23rd of 321479 | Elo rating | 15229th of 32 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  ANA |  OTT |
|---|---|---|
| Puck line | 32–33 | 29–35 |
| Last 10 | 5–5 | 6–4 |
| Favorite | 4–16 | 15–30 |
| Underdog | 28–17 | 14–5 |
| Overs–unders | 39–26 | 36–28 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 4–6 | 4–6 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
ANA 3–2 OTT in their last 5 meetings; the forecast called 3 of 5.