Pittsburgh Penguins at Ottawa Senators, NHL forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors OTT; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Penguins- Rickard RakellGoals2
- Erik KarlssonAssists2
- Rickard RakellPoints3
Senators- Drake BathersonGoals2
- Tim StutzleAssists2
- Drake BathersonPoints2
Scoring summary
- SO0:00Ben Kindel Goal Snap Shot2–1
- SO0:00Egor Chinakhov Goal Snap Shot2–1
- SO0:00Drake Batherson Goal Backhand2–1
- P33:58Drake Batherson Goal (29) Wrist Shot, assists: Tim Stützle (43), Jordan Spence (21)3–3
- P31:43Rickard Rakell Goal (17) Slap Shot, assists: Erik Karlsson (45), Bryan Rust (33)3–2
- P23:45Erik Karlsson Goal (12) Wrist Shot, assists: Rickard Rakell (22), Ben Kindel (16)2–2
- P21:50Nick Cousins Goal (9) Backhand, assists: Tyler Kleven (14), Linus Ullmark (1)1–2
- P113:46Rickard Rakell Goal (16) Snap Shot, assists: Erik Karlsson (44)1–1
- P14:28Drake Batherson Goal (28) Wrist Shot, assists: Brady Tkachuk (30), Tim Stützle (42)0–1
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- P113:46Rickard Rakell Goal (16) Snap Shot, assists: Erik Karlsson (44)PIT 1 – 1 OTT · PIT 28% → 44% +15PIT 28% → 44%+15 pts
- P21:50Nick Cousins Goal (9) Backhand, assists: Tyler Kleven (14), Linus Ullmark (1)PIT 1 – 2 OTT · OTT 56% → 73% +17OTT 56% → 73%+17 pts
- P23:45Erik Karlsson Goal (12) Wrist Shot, assists: Rickard Rakell (22), Ben Kindel (16)PIT 2 – 2 OTT · PIT 27% → 44% +17PIT 27% → 44%+17 pts
- P31:43Rickard Rakell Goal (17) Slap Shot, assists: Erik Karlsson (45), Bryan Rust (33)PIT 3 – 2 OTT · PIT 46% → 71% +25PIT 46% → 71%+25 pts
- P33:58Drake Batherson Goal (29) Wrist Shot, assists: Tim Stützle (43), Jordan Spence (21)PIT 3 – 3 OTT · OTT 27% → 54% +27OTT 27% → 54%+27 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Senators 57%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NHL favorites the forecast gave 55–60% have won 56.4% of 1,035 graded games.
- Market
- OTT 57%
- ML PIT +124 / OTT -148
- Pre-line forecast
- OTT 58%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- OTT 61%
- Ratings vs. market
- +3.5 pts
- OTT: Elo 60.7%, market 57.2%
- Fair odds
- OTT -134
- PIT +134 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- PIT 3.0 – 3.5 OTT
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 6.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | PIT | OTT | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1500 | 1534 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +35 | Worth 35 Elo in the NHL |
| Starting goalies | −1 | +6 | PIT: Stuart Skinner: team allows 0.03 more goals than with its usual starter (≈49 weighted starts) · OTT: Linus Ullmark: team allows 0.15 fewer goals than with its usual starter (≈46 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | OTT +76 Elo | OTT 60.7% | |
| Market-implied ratings | OTT 57.5% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | OTT 58.2% | 20% Elo, 80% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | OTT 57.2% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Overtime and shootout losses count as losses in these records. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest. Shot share is a team's share of the shots on goal in its games. PDO adds shooting and save percentages: far from 100 tends to even out.
| PIT | Stat | OTT |
|---|---|---|
| 8th of 323.4 | Goals scored | 3.410th of 32 |
| 21st of 323.2 | Goals allowed | 3.011th of 32 |
| 10th of 32+0.3 | Margin | +0.37th of 32 |
| 8th of 3251.4% | Shot share | 54.7%3rd of 32 |
| 21st of 3289.4% | Save percentage | 87.8%32nd of 32 |
| 20th of 324–6 | Last 10 | 8–21st of 32 |
| 10th of 3218–16 | Road vs home | 18–1617th of 32 |
| 14th of 321501 | Opponent Elo | 149826th of 32 |
| 15th of 321500 | Elo rating | 15346th of 32 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  PIT |  OTT |
|---|---|---|
| Puck line | 41–30 | 33–38 |
| Last 10 | 4–6 | 6–4 |
| Favorite | 10–20 | 18–33 |
| Underdog | 31–10 | 15–5 |
| Overs–unders | 39–32 | 38–33 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 9–1 | 3–7 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
PIT 1–7 OTT in their last 8 meetings; the forecast called 6 of 8.