Toronto Maple Leafs at Ottawa Senators, NHL forecast
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Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors OTT; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Maple Leafs- Easton CowanGoals1
- Easton CowanAssists1
- Easton CowanPoints2
Senators- Claude GirouxGoals1
- Jordan SpenceAssists2
- Jordan SpencePoints2
Scoring summary
- P313:11Ridly Greig Goal (11) Backhand, assists: Dylan Cozens (27), Tyler Kleven (13)2–5
- P39:41Michael Amadio Goal (12) Wrist Shot, assists: Jordan Spence (19), Shane Pinto (20)2–4
- P34:52Easton Cowan Goal (9) Wrist Shot, assists: Simon Benoit (5), William Nylander (41)2–3
- P218:14John Tavares Goal (25) Wrist Shot, assists: Easton Cowan (13), Brandon Carlo (7)1–3
- P217:53Warren Foegele Goal (11) Wrist Shot, assists: none0–3
- P29:09Claude Giroux Goal (12) Backhand, assists: Tyler Kleven (12), Jordan Spence (18)0–2
- P114:58Tim Stützle Goal (32) Wrist Shot, assists: Thomas Chabot (24), Drake Batherson (34)0–1
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- P114:58Tim Stützle Goal (32) Wrist Shot, assists: Thomas Chabot (24), Drake Batherson (34)TOR 0 – 1 OTT · OTT 71% → 83% +13OTT 71% → 83%+13 pts
- P29:09Claude Giroux Goal (12) Backhand, assists: Tyler Kleven (12), Jordan Spence (18)TOR 0 – 2 OTT · OTT 83% → 93% +10OTT 83% → 93%+10 pts
- P217:53Warren Foegele Goal (11) Wrist Shot, assists: noneTOR 0 – 3 OTT · OTT 94% → 99% +4OTT 94% → 99%+4 pts
- P34:52Easton Cowan Goal (9) Wrist Shot, assists: Simon Benoit (5), William Nylander (41)TOR 2 – 3 OTT · TOR 4% → 15% +11TOR 4% → 15%+11 pts
- P39:41Michael Amadio Goal (12) Wrist Shot, assists: Jordan Spence (19), Shane Pinto (20)TOR 2 – 4 OTT · OTT 87% → 98% +11OTT 87% → 98%+11 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Senators 73%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NHL favorites the forecast gave 70–75% have won 76.2% of 172 graded games.
- Market
- OTT 73%
- ML TOR +260 / OTT -325
- Pre-line forecast
- OTT 72%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- OTT 66%
- Ratings vs. market
- −7.2 pts
- OTT: Elo 66.2%, market 73.4%
- Fair odds
- OTT -275
- TOR +275 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- TOR 2.5 – 4.0 OTT
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 6.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | TOR | OTT | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1485 | 1526 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +35 | Worth 35 Elo in the NHL |
| Rest | −30 | — | TOR on the second night of a back-to-back |
| Starting goalies | −6 | +5 | TOR: Joseph Woll: team allows 0.14 more goals than with its usual starter (≈44 weighted starts) · OTT: Linus Ullmark: team allows 0.13 fewer goals than with its usual starter (≈46 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | OTT +117 Elo | OTT 66.2% | |
| Market-implied ratings | OTT 73.2% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | OTT 71.9% | 20% Elo, 80% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | OTT 73.4% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Overtime and shootout losses count as losses in these records. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest. Shot share is a team's share of the shots on goal in its games. PDO adds shooting and save percentages: far from 100 tends to even out.
| TOR | Stat | OTT |
|---|---|---|
| 15th of 323.1 | Goals scored | 3.49th of 32 |
| 30th of 323.5 | Goals allowed | 3.118th of 32 |
| 27th of 32−0.4 | Margin | +0.39th of 32 |
| 31st of 3245.8% | Shot share | 54.3%3rd of 32 |
| 13th of 3290.0% | Save percentage | 87.7%32nd of 32 |
| 32nd of 322–8 | Last 10 | 7–32nd of 32 |
| 29th of 3212–21 | Road vs home | 17–1619th of 32 |
| 1st of 321506 | Opponent Elo | 149824th of 32 |
| 20th of 321485 | Elo rating | 15267th of 32 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  TOR |  OTT |
|---|---|---|
| Puck line | 29–41 | 31–37 |
| Last 10 | 5–5 | 7–3 |
| Favorite | 7–25 | 17–32 |
| Underdog | 22–16 | 14–5 |
| Overs–unders | 39–31 | 37–31 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 5–5 | 4–6 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
TOR 6–9 OTT in their last 15 meetings; the forecast called 6 of 15.
- Feb 28OTT 5 @ TOR 2Picked OTT 55%Hit
- Dec 27OTT 5 @ TOR 7Picked OTT 53%Miss
- May 1TOR 4 @ OTT 2PlayoffsPicked OTT 51%Miss
- Apr 29OTT 4 @ TOR 0PlayoffsPicked TOR 61%Miss
- Apr 26TOR 3 @ OTT 4PlayoffsPicked OTT 52%Hit
- Apr 24TOR 3 @ OTT 2PlayoffsPicked OTT 54%Miss
- Apr 22OTT 2 @ TOR 3PlayoffsPicked TOR 59%Hit
- Apr 20OTT 2 @ TOR 6PlayoffsPicked TOR 61%Hit