San Jose Sharks at Ottawa Senators, NHL forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors OTT; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Sharks- Mario FerraroGoals1
- Shakir MukhamadullinAssists2
- Tyler ToffoliPoints2
Senators- Drake BathersonGoals2
- Michael AmadioAssists2
- Drake BathersonPoints2
Scoring summary
- P317:43Brady Tkachuk Goal (18) Wrist Shot, assists: Michael Amadio (18), Artem Zub (20)4–7
- P314:50Dylan Cozens Goal (24) Wrist Shot, assists: Brady Tkachuk (28)4–6
- P313:08Drake Batherson Goal (27) Deflected, assists: Artem Zub (19), Claude Giroux (30)4–5
- P33:28Michael Misa Goal (7) Snap Shot, assists: Tyler Toffoli (26), Vincent Desharnais (4)4–4
- P214:45Tyler Kleven Goal (3) Wrist Shot, assists: Fabian Zetterlund (13), Warren Foegele (3)3–4
- P213:40Fabian Zetterlund Goal (13) Slap Shot, assists: Jordan Spence (16)3–3
- P210:46Collin Graf Goal (19) Wrist Shot, assists: Macklin Celebrini (60), Sam Dickinson (11)3–2
- P24:31Warren Foegele Goal (9) Wrist Shot, assists: Michael Amadio (17)2–2
- P114:43Tyler Toffoli Goal (18) Tip-In, assists: Mario Ferraro (12), Shakir Mukhamadullin (6)2–1
- P17:33Drake Batherson Goal (26) , assists: none1–1
- P14:05Mario Ferraro Goal (6) Slap Shot, assists: Shakir Mukhamadullin (5)1–0
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- P210:46Collin Graf Goal (19) Wrist Shot, assists: Macklin Celebrini (60), Sam Dickinson (11)SJ 3 – 2 OTT · SJ 40% → 60% +21SJ 40% → 60%+21 pts
- P213:40Fabian Zetterlund Goal (13) Slap Shot, assists: Jordan Spence (16)SJ 3 – 3 OTT · OTT 38% → 60% +22OTT 38% → 60%+22 pts
- P214:45Tyler Kleven Goal (3) Wrist Shot, assists: Fabian Zetterlund (13), Warren Foegele (3)SJ 3 – 4 OTT · OTT 60% → 79% +19OTT 60% → 79%+19 pts
- P33:28Michael Misa Goal (7) Snap Shot, assists: Tyler Toffoli (26), Vincent Desharnais (4)SJ 4 – 4 OTT · SJ 19% → 42% +24SJ 19% → 42%+24 pts
- P313:08Drake Batherson Goal (27) Deflected, assists: Artem Zub (19), Claude Giroux (30)SJ 4 – 5 OTT · OTT 55% → 89% +34OTT 55% → 89%+34 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Senators 64%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NHL favorites the forecast gave 60–65% have won 62.4% of 599 graded games.
- Market
- OTT 64%
- ML SJ +170 / OTT -205
- Pre-line forecast
- OTT 67%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- OTT 61%
- Ratings vs. market
- −3.1 pts
- OTT: Elo 61.4%, market 64.5%
- Fair odds
- OTT -181
- SJ +181 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- SJ 2.8 – 3.7 OTT
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 6.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | SJ | OTT | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1444 | 1524 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +35 | Worth 35 Elo in the NHL |
| Rest | −30 | −30 | OTT and SJ on the second night of a back-to-back |
| Starting goalies | +43 | +8 | SJ: Laurent Brossoit: team allows 1.07 fewer goals than with its usual starter (≈17 weighted starts) · OTT: Linus Ullmark: team allows 0.19 fewer goals than with its usual starter (≈46 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | OTT +80 Elo | OTT 61.4% | |
| Market-implied ratings | OTT 68.8% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | OTT 67.3% | 20% Elo, 80% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | OTT 64.5% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Overtime and shootout losses count as losses in these records. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest. Shot share is a team's share of the shots on goal in its games. PDO adds shooting and save percentages: far from 100 tends to even out.
| SJ | Stat | OTT |
|---|---|---|
| 16th of 323.1 | Goals scored | 3.49th of 32 |
| 29th of 323.5 | Goals allowed | 3.116th of 32 |
| 24th of 32−0.3 | Margin | +0.39th of 32 |
| 30th of 3246.0% | Shot share | 54.2%3rd of 32 |
| 21st of 3289.3% | Save percentage | 87.7%32nd of 32 |
| 12th of 325–5 | Last 10 | 6–47th of 32 |
| 18th of 3215–17 | Road vs home | 15–1624th of 32 |
| 4th of 321504 | Opponent Elo | 149922nd of 32 |
| 30th of 321444 | Elo rating | 15248th of 32 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  SJ |  OTT |
|---|---|---|
| Puck line | 42–22 | 30–35 |
| Last 10 | 6–4 | 7–3 |
| Favorite | 2–4 | 16–30 |
| Underdog | 40–18 | 14–5 |
| Overs–unders | 31–33 | 36–29 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 3–7 | 4–6 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
SJ 1–4 OTT in their last 5 meetings; the forecast called 5 of 5.