New York Islanders at Toronto Maple Leafs, NHL forecast
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Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors TOR; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Islanders- Calum RitchieGoals1
- Mathew BarzalAssists3
- Mathew BarzalPoints3
Maple Leafs- Steven LorentzGoals1
- Bo GroulxAssists1
- Steven LorentzPoints1
Scoring summary
- P211:57Emil Heineman Goal (19) Slap Shot, assists: Tony DeAngelo (27), Mathew Barzal (45)3–1
- P24:40Steven Lorentz Goal (5) Wrist Shot, assists: Bo Groulx (1)2–1
- P19:43Calum Ritchie Goal (9) Wrist Shot, assists: Mathew Barzal (44), Matthew Schaefer (29)2–0
- P14:15Brayden Schenn Goal (13) Wrist Shot, assists: Calum Ritchie (12), Mathew Barzal (43)1–0
Turning points
The 4 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- P14:15Brayden Schenn Goal (13) Wrist Shot, assists: Calum Ritchie (12), Mathew Barzal (43)NYI 1 – 0 TOR · NYI 59% → 73% +14NYI 59% → 73%+14 pts
- P19:43Calum Ritchie Goal (9) Wrist Shot, assists: Mathew Barzal (44), Matthew Schaefer (29)NYI 2 – 0 TOR · NYI 73% → 84% +11NYI 73% → 84%+11 pts
- P24:40Steven Lorentz Goal (5) Wrist Shot, assists: Bo Groulx (1)NYI 2 – 1 TOR · TOR 13% → 26% +13TOR 13% → 26%+13 pts
- P211:57Emil Heineman Goal (19) Slap Shot, assists: Tony DeAngelo (27), Mathew Barzal (45)NYI 3 – 1 TOR · NYI 76% → 89% +13NYI 76% → 89%+13 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Islanders 59%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NHL favorites the forecast gave 55–60% have won 56.4% of 1,035 graded games.
- Market
- NYI 59%
- ML NYI -162 / TOR +136
- Pre-line forecast
- NYI 50%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- NYI 47%
- Ratings vs. market
- −12.6 pts
- NYI: Elo 46.8%, market 59.3%
- Fair odds
- NYI -146
- TOR +146 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- NYI 3.5 – 3.0 TOR
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 6.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | NYI | TOR | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1495 | 1491 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +35 | Worth 35 Elo in the NHL |
| Starting goalies | +2 | −7 | NYI: Ilya Sorokin: team allows 0.05 fewer goals than with its usual starter (≈48 weighted starts) · TOR: Joseph Woll: team allows 0.17 more goals than with its usual starter (≈44 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | TOR +22 Elo | TOR 53.2% | |
| Market-implied ratings | NYI 51.0% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | NYI 50.2% | 20% Elo, 80% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | NYI 59.3% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Overtime and shootout losses count as losses in these records. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest. Shot share is a team's share of the shots on goal in its games. PDO adds shooting and save percentages: far from 100 tends to even out.
| NYI | Stat | TOR |
|---|---|---|
| 22nd of 322.9 | Goals scored | 3.215th of 32 |
| 5th of 322.9 | Goals allowed | 3.530th of 32 |
| 14th of 32+0.1 | Margin | −0.325th of 32 |
| 16th of 3250.0% | Shot share | 45.8%31st of 32 |
| 3rd of 3290.7% | Save percentage | 90.1%11th of 32 |
| 3rd of 327–3 | Last 10 | 2–830th of 32 |
| 7th of 3220–16 | Road vs home | 17–1822nd of 32 |
| 22nd of 321498 | Opponent Elo | 15045th of 32 |
| 19th of 321495 | Elo rating | 149120th of 32 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  NYI |  TOR |
|---|---|---|
| Puck line | 34–33 | 28–40 |
| Last 10 | 4–6 | 4–6 |
| Favorite | 3–22 | 7–25 |
| Underdog | 31–11 | 21–15 |
| Overs–unders | 32–35 | 38–30 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 5–5 | 5–5 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
NYI 5–2 TOR in their last 7 meetings; the forecast called 3 of 7.